Prediction Aalborg BK vs HB Køge 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the First Division on 02/10/2025

Match context and current form

Aalborg BK return to Aalborg Portland Park on October 2 with momentum that feels fragile but promising. Sitting eighth in the First Division after 11 rounds with 14 points, Aalborg have been a rollercoaster this season — capable of racking up big wins at times and slipping in awkward defeats at others. Their recent sequence includes a 2-1 reverse at Lyngby, a 3-0 victory over B 93 and a heavy 0-3 loss to FC Midtjylland, underlining an unpredictable edge that still leans toward offensive potency at home. Across the campaign Aalborg have scored 12 goals on home soil while conceding only three there, a stat that underlines real defensive solidity in front of their fans at a compact Aalborg Portland Park (capacity 13,310).

HB Køge arrive in Aalborg in a much lower gear, occupying 11th place with 10 points from 11 matches. Their form reads as a concern: a 0-2 defeat to Hvidovre most recently sits alongside heavier reversals this month, including a 4-0 loss to Lyngby and narrow defeats away from their own ground. HB Køge’s away record has been porous; they have shipped 15 goals away from home while scoring six, suggesting they struggle to carry threat consistently on the road. The sequence of results shows more losses than wins and only intermittent signs of recovery.

Statistical snapshot and head-to-head

Numbers favor Aalborg in several meaningful departments. The home side averages 103.64 attacks and 48.18 dangerous attacks per match, comfortably outpacing HB Køge’s averages of 82.64 attacks and 39.36 dangerous moves. Aalborg also create more set-piece opportunities, reflected in a corners average of 5.45 against HB Køge’s 3.45. In their only earlier meeting this season HB Køge hosted Aalborg and fell 0-2, a result that underlines the visitors’ ability to translate chances into goals when structure and confidence align.

Bookmakers are also siding with the hosts; the latest market prices make Aalborg clear favorites with a best-price home win near 1.42, implying roughly a 70% probability on the 1X2 market. HB Køge are available at long odds and the draw is priced as a distant second option. Given Aalborg’s strong home defensive numbers and the visitors’ tendency to concede heavily away, the balance of evidence points one way.

Prediction and betting tip

Expect Aalborg BK to control large parts of this contest, using home rhythm and higher attacking volume to test a struggling HB Køge defense. The clean-sheet record at home and the visitors’ away goals conceded tally make a straight home win the clearest value bet. Recommended wager: back Aalborg BK to win in the 1X2 market at the available odds (home win ≈ 1.42) — the most logical single-market play given form lines, underlying attacking metrics and the bookmakers’ alignment with those trends.