Match preview: home comfort and away struggles set the scene
Saturday evening at the Cherry Red Records Stadium shapes up as a key derby in the lower half of League One. AFC Wimbledon welcome Exeter City on 29/12/2025 under referee Jacob Miles, and the numbers point to a narrow but clear edge for the home side. Wimbledon sit 14th with 28 points after 21 matches, while Exeter occupy 22nd with 23 points — a small gap that matters given Exeter’s evident difficulties on the road. Wimbledon’s home figures read better defensively: 10 goals scored at home and just 7 conceded, whereas Exeter have managed only 5 goals away but shipped 13 in those fixtures. That gulf in away output is the crucial narrative going into this clash.
Recent form and momentum
AFC Wimbledon arrive off a 0-0 draw with Stevenage and mixed results through December, a sequence that includes two draws, two losses and a notable 5-1 victory away at Cardiff earlier in the month. Their latest form string shows inconsistency but with defensive solidity at home — five clean sheets across the campaign underline that resilience. Exeter’s travels tell a different story; the Grecians won convincingly at home in mid-December but lost to Cardiff 1-0 on Boxing Day, and their away numbers — just five goals on the road — suggest they lack cutting power when forced out of St James Park. Head-to-head earlier this month went Exeter’s way with a 1-0 victory, but that result came at Exeter; returning to Wimbledon’s patch flips the advantage.
Tactical outlook and key stats
Expect a cautious contest where goals may be at a premium. Both teams show modest BTTS percentages in away/home splits — Wimbledon’s home BTTS sits around 40% while Exeter’s away BTTS is about 42.9% — suggesting a significant chance of one side keeping the opposition out. Wimbledon’s averages for shots and attacks are marginally higher at home and their clean-sheet count (five) is respectable for this level. Exeter’s tendency to concede on the road and their shallow away goal tally point toward a match that could be settled by a single moment or defensive lapse.
Prediction and betting tip
The bookmakers favour the home win at about 2.36, and that aligns with the underlying data: stronger defensive return at Cherry Red Records Stadium, Exeter’s poor away scoring record, and Wimbledon’s ability to grind out results at home. For bettors focused on market selection, consider reading guidance on approach and market choice like Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets to refine stake and market decisions, and for broader strategic options explore What does it mean the handicap market in sports betting?.
Final call: back AFC Wimbledon in the 1X2 market. The recommended play is a straight Home win (AFC Wimbledon) — the best value pick here given the home defensive numbers and Exeter’s away struggles. Stake sensibly and consider a conservative unit size given both teams’ patchy recent runs.
