Prediction Atalanta vs Como 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Serie A on 04/10/2025

Match context and recent momentum

The Gewiss Stadium will be buzzing on October 4 when Atalanta host Como in what promises to be a competitive Serie A clash. Atalanta arrive sitting a point clear of their visitors in the table — five matches, nine points and still unbeaten in the league so far — a record that underlines their consistency. Their form across competitions has been mixed with a confidence-boosting Champions League victory over Club Brugge in which Mario Pasalić earned plaudits, but also a heavy defeat to Paris Saint Germain that reminded supporters of the team’s defensive vulnerabilities. Home turf has been productive: Atalanta have found the net regularly and boast a combined ten goals in league play, split evenly between home and away fixtures.

Como travel to Bergamo off the back of an encouraging run. The Lombard side have accumulated eight points from five matches and have shown they can upset bigger names, recording wins at Fiorentina and Sassuolo and grinding draws when needed. Nico Paz stood out in Como’s draw with Cremonese, and the visitors’ attacking output has been respectable — six goals in the league so far — but Como have conceded as many as Atalanta, underlining that this fixture could be open and entertaining.

Tactical clues from the numbers

The statistical picture paints a game likely to feature moments at both ends. Atalanta average 88.4 attacks per match and generate a high number of shots inside the box, while Como actually edge them in total attacking actions with an average of 100.2 — a sign that the visitors won’t sit back. Atalanta’s home matches have shown a 50% rate for both teams scoring, while Como’s home form historically produces BTTS more often; however, Como’s away BTTS rate drops to about a third. Over/under trends are less decisive: Atalanta show a 40% occurrence of over 2.5 goals and Como just 20%, suggesting matches involving the visitors are often tighter.

There is recent head-to-head context to consider: the teams met earlier this year in Serie A with Atalanta walking away 2-1, a result that could psychologically favour the hosts. Referee Luca Zufferli will take charge at Gewiss Stadium, where home support and familiarity come into play.

Betting suggestion (final call) Based on form, home advantage, and market pricing, the clearest value lies on the 1X2 market backing the home side. Atalanta to win is the preferred pick — the bookmakers list the home victory around 2.20, reflecting roughly a 45% implied probability and offering reasonable return given Atalanta’s unbeaten start, stronger home attacking metrics, and the previous 2-1 success at Como earlier in the year. As ever, back the selection with sensible stakes and consider the match’s open nature — injuries, late team news or in-game swings can alter the outcome.