Prediction Athletic Club vs Girona 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for La Liga on 23/09/2025

Match outlook: Athletic Club set to impose themselves at San Mamés Barria

Athletic Club return to San Mamés Barria on 23 September buoyed by home comforts and clear statistical advantages. The Basque side sit sixth in La Liga after five rounds with nine points, a return built on three wins and two defeats, and an even goal difference of 6 scored and 6 conceded. Their recent domestic rhythm has been jagged — a 2-0 reverse at Valencia on 20 September extends a mixed run — but Athletic’s home metrics underline why they are firm favourites: more shots overall, higher numbers of shots inside the box, a better dangerous-attacks average and a notably stronger corners return. The venue in Bilbao, with its 53,289 capacity, has often amplified Athletic’s intensity and will be an important factor against a team that has struggled to take points on the road.

Girona’s struggles leave them exposed

Girona arrive propped up at the bottom of the table on just one point from five matches, having conceded 15 goals already. Their away numbers are concerning — minimal attacking pressure, fewer corners and no clean sheets — and the most recent 0-4 home battering by Levante underlines defensive frailties. The Catalans’ solitary point came from a 1-1 draw at Celta but that resilience has been rare; otherwise their campaign has been characterised by heavy defeats and a chronic inability to convert chances. A 3-0 loss to Athletic earlier in the season points to a matchup that historically has favoured the hosts.

Tactical narrative and what to expect

Expect Athletic to control tempo and territory. Their higher attacks-per-game and dangerous-attacks average suggest an emphasis on building sustained pressure and creating shots inside the box. Girona, by contrast, will likely be stretched and forced into deep defending, with limited output from open play. Both teams left their most recent fixtures on the wrong side of the result, but the narrative here is clear: home advantage plus superior underlying numbers lean heavily towards Athletic taking all three points. Recent match reports highlight individual performers: Mikel Jauregizar put in the best rating for Athletic in their last outing, while Azzedine Ounahi was the standout on the winning side against Girona’s most recent opponent — small details that reinforce the current momentum gap.

Betting suggestion (1X2) Back Athletic Club to win. The market strongly favours the home side (odds around 1.45, implied probability ~69%), which aligns with their superior home statistics, the visitors’ leaky defence and a clean head-to-head history. This is a confidence-backed 1X2 pick: Athletic to win.