Prediction Athletic Club vs Mallorca 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for La Liga on 04/10/2025

Match preview and context

Athletic Club welcome Mallorca to San Mamés Barria on 04/10/2025 in a La Liga clash that feels like a crossroads for both teams. Athletic arrive on paper as clear favourites: they sit 10th in the table with 10 points from seven matches and carry superior attacking metrics — more total shots (96 vs 76), considerably higher shots on target (30 vs 29) and a far greater average of attacks (119.57 vs 86.14). Those numbers underline Athletic’s capacity to dominate territory and create chances at home, and the bookmakers reflect that dominance with a home price of 1.53 (implied probability 65.36%).

Mallorca, rooted in 19th and picking up just five points, need results to arrest a worrying run. They did claim a morale-boosting 1-0 win over Deportivo Alavés in their most recent league outing, with Johan Mojica earning the match’s best rating, but their season overall has been fragile: one win, two draws and four losses from seven matches, and a goals conceded figure that sits at 11. Defensively they have been porous away from home, and their average dangerous attacks (34.43) and corners (4.14) are modest compared to Athletic’s numbers.

Form, recent meetings and tactical outlook

Recent form paints a mixed picture for Athletic — heavy defeats have peppered their calendar (including a 4-1 reverse to Borussia Dortmund in Europe) but domestically they remain more consistent in creating offensive volume. Athletic’s home numbers show they score more at San Mamés than on the road and generate nearly seven corners per game on average, a sign of sustained pressure that Mallorca will struggle to live with if the Basques find rhythm.

Head-to-head history is not one-sided; the most recent La Liga meeting between these two ended in a 1-1 draw in March 2025, so Mallorca are capable of frustrating Athletic if they execute a compact game. Still, given the gulf in league positions, attacking intent and home advantage, Athletic are the side most likely to impose themselves.

Match prediction and betting tip

This is a fixture where the underlying data and betting market align. Athletic’s superior volume of attacks, home comfort at San Mamés Barria and the bookmakers’ strong lean to the home side make the safest and most logical play a straight 1X2 bet on Athletic Club to win. The price of 1.53 reflects a market view that Athletic should take the three points, and with Mallorca struggling for consistency and defensive solidity, backing the home victory is the tip that best matches the stats and recent results.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Athletic Club to win (odds 1.53). Confidence: high.