Prediction Atlético Grau vs Alianza Universidad 2025 – Betting Tips for the Primera Division on 18/09/2025

Tight affair expected in Sullana as both sides search for momentum

Atlético Grau return to Estadio Campeones del '36 eager to build on a morale-boosting 2-0 victory over ADT, but the home side’s campaign remains uneven. Sitting 13th in the Clausura table with seven points from seven matches, Grau have shown flashes of resilience — their recent clean-sheet win is a reminder they can frustrate opponents — yet the overall sequence of results paints a team still trying to find consistency. Their group numbers indicate modest goal production and a reliance on compact displays at times; their reported clean sheets and lower btts percentage suggest Atlético Grau are capable of grinding out low-scoring outcomes, particularly on home turf.

Alianza Universidad arrive having had their confidence dented by a heavy 0-3 loss to Cienciano just days earlier. Occupying ninth place with ten points from eight matches, the visitors have edged marginally better in the standings but their form is patchy. Alianza have alternated wins and defeats through the recent sequence and their shot averages hint at a side that can manufacture chances — they average more total shots and slightly higher attacking metrics than Grau — but defensive lapses have cost them. Conceding multiple goals away from home has been an issue, and the thrashing in their most recent outing underlines susceptibility at the back.

Head-to-head and tactical implications

The last meeting between these two in April finished 0-0, a result that lingers as a meaningful reference point. When previous encounters trend low on goals and both teams present mixed form, matches often tilt toward cautious approaches. Atlético Grau’s home environment — a 12,000-capacity ground in Sullana — should favour a compact, organised home display, while Alianza Universidad may look to assert more with higher shot volumes. Yet given Alianza’s defensive frailties and Atlético Grau’s ability to keep opponents at bay, the balance points toward a game that could be decided by a single moment rather than an open goal-fest.

The underlying stats push the narrative toward a restrained encounter. Both teams show moderate BTTS percentages and over/under figures close to the middle ground; clean sheet tallies and a recent 0-0 h2h increase the chance that defenses will have the upper hand. Atlético Grau will be motivated to defend home turf after their last win, and Alianza Universidad will be wary of overcommitting after conceding three in their previous match.

Betting suggestion: Goal market — Under 2.5 goals. The evidence favours a low-scoring, tightly contested match where defences have the edge and history points to goalless or single-goal margins.