Stakes high at AFAS Stadion as AZ look to impose authority
The mid-January clash at AFAS Stadion promises a classic top-versus-struggler storyline in the Eredivisie as AZ welcome Excelsior on 21 January 2026. AZ arrive with plenty of attacking credentials this season — 33 goals scored across 18 matches and an aggressive home record that has produced 19 goals at AFAS Stadion. Despite a hiccup in their most recent outing, a 3-1 defeat to PEC Zwolle on 17 January where Peer Koopmeiners was the standout performer, the visitors should be wary of AZ’s capacity to bounce back. The statistics underline AZ’s tendency to produce matches with several goals (over 2.5 in 72.22% of home fixtures), and their average of 6.39 corners and almost 17 shots per match suggests sustained pressure will be the theme at kickoff.
Excelsior arrive in Alkmaar sitting 14th, and their defensive numbers make uncomfortable reading for fans travelling up the A9. Conceding 34 goals in 18 matches — 22 of those away from home — has left them vulnerable, and while they can be competitive on a given night (they drew 2-2 with Telstar in their latest game), the away form exposes gaps AZ are likely to target. Excelsior do produce moments of resilience, with some attacking intent reflected in a 66.67% rate for over 2.5 goals in their fixtures, but their journey to Alkmaar will be dominated by the need to contain AZ’s forward thrusts and cut down space inside the box.
How this game is likely to play out
Tactically, expect AZ to control possession and create the higher volume of chances. Their attacking averages and dangerous attack numbers point to a team that will press and probe, looking to stretch Excelsior’s backline. Excelsior, on the other hand, will need to be organised and compact, hoping to strike on the counter or capitalise on set-piece moments. The referee appointment of Alex Bos promises a standard domestic fixture with the usual edge, and the AFAS Stadion atmosphere can be decisive in keeping AZ buoyant.
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Betting suggestion (final pick): Home win (1X2) — back AZ. Bookmakers make AZ heavy favorites at 1.27, reflecting strong home attacking metrics, higher xG potential implied by shots and corners, and Excelsior’s porous away defensive record. For those wanting a goals angle, Over 2.5 is a secondary option given both teams’ high over-2.5 percentages, but the clearest edge from the supplied data is a confident AZ victory at AFAS Stadion.
