Prediction Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Union Berlin 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Bundesliga on 04/10/2025

Match context and storyline

The BayArena will be buzzing on 04/10/2025 when Bayer 04 Leverkusen welcome FC Union Berlin for a Round 6 Bundesliga clash that promises entertainment. Leverkusen arrive with momentum and the weight of expectation—home comforts, attacking numbers and recent performances that suggest they are the team to beat. Union Berlin head to Leverkusen with a reputation for grit and the capacity to produce unexpected fireworks, most recently grinding out a goalless draw at home but also delivering a wild 4-3 win away at Eintracht Frankfurt earlier in the month. Referee Christian Dingert will oversee what looks set to be an open, competitive encounter at a packed BayArena.

Form, trends and what the numbers say

Leverkusen have been prolific in this early stretch of the season, finding the net ten times across five league games while conceding eight. Their recent schedule includes a Champions League draw with PSV and a convincing 3-1 home victory over Eintracht Frankfurt, showing they can combine continental commitments with domestic sharpness. The home team’s shooting figures underline their attacking intent: 53 total shots with 27 on target suggests sustained pressure inside the box and an ability to create clear chances. Union Berlin, meanwhile, are no strangers to creating action in the final third—62 total shots in their campaign so far and a string of high-scoring affairs peppered into their results. Despite an away record that includes setbacks, Union have the firepower to threaten and have shown they can score in big moments.

Both sides register an 80% rate for over 2.5 goals across their recent games, a striking parallel that points to open encounters rather than cagey stalemates. The head-to-head from April delivered a 0-0 stalemate, but that single data point sits against a broader backdrop of matches full of chances and goals from both camps this season. Leverkusen have yet to keep a league clean sheet at home, while Union still leak goals when on the road—factors that typically nudge fixtures toward goal-rich outcomes.

Matchup narrative and decisive factors

This fixture is likely to be decided by which side presses more effectively and which goalkeeper or defence can produce a crucial stop. Leverkusen’s home attacking metrics and recent scoring run give them the edge in control and initiative, but Union’s ability to convert chances and their recent triumph in a seven-goal thriller indicate they won’t be mere passengers. Expect end-to-end action, periods of domination by Leverkusen, and counterpunches from Union that could create a frenetic, high-tempo ninety minutes.

Betting suggestion: Back the Over 2.5 goals market. Both teams have an 80% over-2.5 record in their recent match sample, combined shot volumes and attacking intent point to multiple scoring opportunities, and Leverkusen’s relative vulnerability at the back paired with Union’s ability to find the net make Over 2.5 the most compelling single-market pick from the available data.