Prediction Benfica vs Rio Ave 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Liga Portugal on 23/09/2025

Match preview: Lisbon showdown at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Lisbon will be buzzing on 23/09/2025 when Benfica hosts Rio Ave at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. The champions-elect mood around Benfica is palpable after a strong run of domestic form and a reassuring 3-0 win away at AVS just days before this fixture. That victory, coupled with a narrow defeat at home to Qarabağ in mid-September, paints a picture of a side in control — potent in attack and difficult to break down. Benfica arrive with 13 points from five matches in the league and a goal difference that underlines their dominance: 10 scored and only 2 conceded.

Rio Ave, by contrast, are trudging through a difficult start. Winless in the league with just three points from five games and sitting 16th, their recent 0-3 reverse to Porto on 19/09/2025 exposed defensive frailties. Draws have been the theme in several of their early fixtures, but the team has been unable to convert that resilience into wins. Rio Ave’s form summary shows more draws than victories and an alarming 12 goals conceded across five matches; the attack has struggled to cover for those defensive lapses.

Tactical edge and key numbers

Benfica’s underlying numbers give further reason for optimism. They average over 120 attacks per match with 65.2 dangerous attacks — an output that translates into real scoring opportunities. With 79 total shots and 30 on target across recent matches, the hosts look capable of sustaining pressure and converting chances. Defensively, Benfica have kept three clean sheets, reflecting a balance between creative spark and solidity at the back.

Rio Ave’s figures tell a different story: they average just 77.2 attacks and 26.2 dangerous attacks, with no clean sheets to their name in the current run. Their defensive record of six goals conceded at home and six away signals vulnerability that a team like Benfica is likely to exploit, particularly on home turf where the capacity of Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica and the crowd will intensify the pressure.

Prediction and betting tip

Given the gulf in form, attacking threat, and defensive stability, the clear outcome to expect is a Benfica victory. Bookmakers echo this view with heavy odds favouring the home side. While Rio Ave can pick up draws, their inability to close out results and the recent loss to Porto suggest this trip will be uphill.

Betting suggestion: 1 (Benfica to win) on the 1X2 market. The combination of Benfica’s scoring numbers, Rio Ave’s porous defence, and the decisive home advantage makes the home win the strongest single-market pick from the available data.