Preview: fragile hosts, confident visitors — Ewood Park set for a heated encounter
Blackburn Rovers return to Ewood Park on December 20 with the kind of mood that has defined much of their 2025/2026 Championship campaign: patchy form, defensive vulnerability and a stubborn streak at home that produces entertaining but unpredictable matches. Occupying 20th in the table after 20 games, Blackburn have managed only six wins and have conceded 26 goals overall. Their home record stands out for all the wrong reasons — nine goals scored at Ewood but 16 shipped — a sign this fixture tends to open up, and not always in their favour. Millwall, travelling from the capital, sit fourth and arrive with stronger numbers across the season: ten wins, 35 points and a more consistent carving out of results on the road. Yet their last outing, a 3-1 loss to Hull City, will sharpen the visitors’ focus.
Form and patterns that matter
Recent match sequences for both clubs show similarities: Blackburn’s last five produced draws and narrow defeats, with a 2-1 reverse at Portsmouth a week before this meeting; Millwall’s results mix wins and losses with a 3-1 setback at Hull on the same weekend. The historical sting in the tail comes from April’s head-to-head: Blackburn recorded a commanding 4-1 victory over Millwall earlier in the season, reminding us that form on paper does not always tell the full story. Statistically this clash leans towards goals: Blackburn’s home fixtures have seen both teams score 72.73% of the time, while Millwall’s away matches show a 70% BTTS rate. Over/under 2.5 data is also telling — near the mid-to-high 40s for both sides — suggesting a decent chance of three or more goals, even if the lines aren’t screamingly high.
Tactically, expect a contest where defensive frailties will be probed. Blackburn’s concession figures at Ewood create opportunities for Millwall’s attack to exploit space, but Millwall have conceded 29 overall and remain vulnerable, especially on counters after pushing forward. The clash of a struggling defence against a direct and efficient attacking unit traditionally favours matches with goals at both ends.
Before placing a stake, refresh your market approach with a quick read on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets and remember to manage emotion with practical routines outlined in How to have emotional control when placing bets?.
Betting suggestion: Back the goal market — Both Teams to Score (BTTS: Yes). The evidence is clear in the percentages for both sides at home and away, the head-to-head history that produced a high-scoring affair, and the defensive numbers that point to openings for both attacks. This market combines reasonable value and a strong statistical basis given the available data.
