Packed New Year clash at Ewood Park: form, facts and the finer margins
Blackburn Rovers welcome Wrexham to Ewood Park on 01/01/2026 in a clash that carries the feel of a new-year reality check for both sides. Blackburn sit uncomfortably in 19th with 27 points after 23 games, a campaign riven with draws and narrow outcomes. Their recent sequence reads as a procession of stalemates — back-to-back 0-0 draws against Sheffield Wednesday and Middlesbrough sandwiching a 2-0 victory over Millwall — and underlines a team that can grind results but struggles to turn dominance into consistent wins. At home they have managed 11 goals while conceding 16, a record that points to defensive vulnerability inside Ewood Park despite seven clean sheets overall.
Wrexham arrive in a contrasting mood. Occupying 11th, they have been an entertaining proposition of late: a 5-3 thriller against Sheffield United and a comeback 2-1 win over Preston underlines an attacking side capable of producing high-scoring encounters. Across 24 matches Wrexham have netted 34 times, though their away return of 10 goals indicates they can be less prolific on the road. The recent form line suggests momentum — four wins in their last ten with six clean sheets across the campaign — and players such as Nathan Broadhead have been influential in deciding tight matches.
Head-to-head and market context
Their last meeting ended 1-1 in late November, reinforcing the notion of a closely matched affair. Bookmakers price Blackburn as slight favourites with a home price of 2.02 (implied probability ~49.5%), the draw at 3.35 and Wrexham at 3.70. Those lines reflect home advantage, but also the unpredictability both teams have shown: Blackburn’s tendency to draw and Wrexham’s propensity for open, goal-filled games make this a match where margins and moments will decide the outcome.
Tactical numbers supply further clues. Blackburn’s home matches show a strong incidence of both teams scoring — BTTS in 72.73% of their home fixtures — while Wrexham’s overall campaign has been goal-rich, producing over 2.5 goals in roughly 41.7% of their fixtures. That combination points to an encounter where defensive lapses on either side could be punished, and where a low-scoring stalemate is less likely than a match with goals at both ends.
Final verdict and betting guidance
Taking all available information into account — league positions, recent results, the 1-1 H2H in November, and the market odds — the safest market with the clearest value is a goals-based selection. Given Blackburn’s high BTTS rate at home and Wrexham’s recent attacking output, the encounter looks primed for both teams to find the net. For those who prefer match-outcome wagers the bookies’ pricing on Blackburn to win carries logic given home advantage, but offers less upside relative to the goal markets.
Suggested reading on market selection and timing can sharpen your approach: Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets and for those weighing when to pull the trigger on goal bets, see The right time to place bets on goal markets.
Betting suggestion: Both Teams To Score — Yes. Based on Blackburn’s 72.73% BTTS at home and Wrexham’s attacking recent form, BTTS offers the best balance of probability and value for this clash.
