Prediction Bologna vs Genoa 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Serie A on 20/09/2025

Match preview: tight tussle at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

The Serie A weekend brings us a compact but intriguing clash as Bologna welcome Genoa to the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on 20/09/2025. Referee Giuseppe Collu will oversee a Round 4 fixture that looks destined to be defined by narrow margins rather than goal fests. Bologna sit marginally ahead in the early table at 13th with three points from three matches, while Genoa find themselves 15th with two points. The stadium atmosphere — a capacity of 36,532 on paper — promises the usual Italian intensity even if the recent results have been low-scoring and cagey.

Form and recent meetings: low scoring, tight margins

Recent results tell a consistent story. Bologna arrive after a 1-0 loss to Milan on 14 September; that followed a 1-0 home success over Como and a 1-0 defeat at Roma earlier in the month. Across those fixtures Bologna have managed just one goal in three league games and conceded two. Genoa’s recent run includes a 1-1 draw at Como, a 0-1 home defeat by Juventus and a 0-0 stalemate with Lecce — also three matches with just one goal scored and two conceded. The last time these sides met in Serie A was May 24, 2025, with Genoa producing a lively 3-1 away win, but that result stands in contrast to the more guarded patterns both teams are showing this term.

Statistically the contest looks like one of chance creation versus poor finishing. Genoa’s season numbers show a higher attacking output: 95.33 attacks per match and 9 shots average with nine shots on target in their sample, compared to Bologna’s 71.67 attacks and 30 total shots with only four on target. Genoa have created more dangerous attacks on average, yet have not translated that work into wins in the league so far. Bologna, meanwhile, have been efficient at the back at home with one clean sheet and modest attacking returns.

Tactical backdrop and what to expect

Expect a midfield arm-wrestle and a focus on controlling transitions. Bologna’s slightly more conservative profile at home and Genoa’s tendency to generate many shots but struggle to finish suggests a match where clear chances could be at a premium. Both teams display defensive solidity at times — each has recorded a clean sheet already — and their fouls and set-piece averages hint that dead-ball situations could be decisive.

Prediction: this is likely to be a narrow game with a slight edge to the home side. Bookmakers currently price Bologna as the favorite at 1.86 (about a 53.8% implied probability), and given Bologna’s home comfort and Genoa’s inability to convert the chances they create, the balance tilts to the hosts.

Betting suggestion: Back Bologna to win (1) at 1.86.