Prediction Bologna vs Pisa 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Serie A on 05/10/2025

Match context and momentum

Bologna welcome Pisa to the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on October 5th in a fixture that carries more than its modest midweek profile. The hosts sit 10th in the early Serie A table with seven points from five matches, while Pisa are propping up the standings in 18th with just two points. Bologna arrive with a patchwork of results across competitions but with encouraging signs: a recent 1-1 draw in the Europa League against SC Freiburg underlines competitive resilience, and Riccardo Orsolini’s 7.36 rating in that tie suggests attacking sparks remain present. Pisa, by contrast, have struggled to convert chances into points — a goalless draw with Fiorentina was a solid defensive showing, but their domestic sequence includes three losses and only one win in the broader form sample provided.

Tactical clues from the numbers

The statistical skews favour Bologna. At home Bologna have conceded just once while scoring three, and they average more attacks (91.8) and dangerous attacks (35.8) than the visitors’ respective numbers. Pisa’s attacking output is thinner: three goals from five matches and only one away clean sheet reported, indicating issues breaking down defenses consistently. Both teams produce similar shot volumes with Bologna edging slightly in shots on target and corners, but the decisive factor is efficiency and consistency — Bologna have converted enough moments to claim two wins and a vital draw in European competition, whereas Pisa continue to search for their first league victory.

Head-to-head history adds colour: the most recent meeting listed was a 3-0 success for Bologna in the Coppa Italia back in 2019, a reminder that historically the away side has struggled to assert itself against the Rossoblù.

What to expect on the night

Expect Bologna to control the tempo from home advantage, probing down the wings and forcing Pisa to defend in structured blocks. Pisa will likely look compact, aiming to frustrate and snatch something on the break or from set plays, but their attacking returns this season have been modest. The probabilities priced by the market reflect this balance: bookmakers give Bologna a strong edge with home odds around 1.59 and a probability above 60 percent. Draw and away outcomes carry much longer prices and reflect the uphill task for Pisa.

Betting suggestion

For the 1X2 market the clearest, data-driven call is a home win for Bologna. The combination of home defensive solidity, higher attacking activity, European match fitness and favorable bookmaker pricing makes Bologna the most likely outcome. Suggested bet: Back Bologna to win (1) in the 1X2 market.