Prediction Borussia Dortmund vs Athletic Club 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Champions League on 01/10/2025

Match outlook: Signal Iduna Park set for a lively evening

Borussia Dortmund head into this Champions League clash as clear favourites on paper and in the odds. Playing at the intimidating Signal Iduna Park, a venue that holds 81,365 supporters, Dortmund arrive off a rich vein of domestic results: wins over Mainz, Wolfsburg and Heidenheim peppered with a thrilling 4-4 draw away to Juventus in mid-September. Those recent displays underline a team that is creating chances—Dortmund registered ten total shots in their latest European outing with five on target—and they carry momentum into Round 2 of the league stage under referee Szymon Marciniak’s watch. The group picture currently shows Dortmund with one point from a 4-4 opener, indicating both attacking potency and some defensive vulnerability; still, the market has priced the home win at 1.81 with an implied probability north of 55%.

Athletic Club: stuttering form and away-day concerns

Athletic Club arrive in Germany under pressure. Their recent run reads poorly: a string of defeats at the tail end of an otherwise mixed sequence has dented confidence. In La Liga, losses to Villarreal and Valencia bookend a stretch that includes a goalless draw with Girona but also home reverses. Statistical snapshots from recent matches show Athletic are getting shots but struggling to trouble keepers—their latest European match saw 11 total shots but just two on target, and they went down 1-0 at Villarreal in their last outing. On paper, Athletic’s Champions League ledger stands at zero points after a 2-0 loss, and their travel numbers show a side that needs to sharpen finishing and tighten up defensively to compete at this level.

Why the home win looks the strongest play

This is a contest where form, venue and shot quality tilt decisively towards Dortmund. The home side’s higher proportion of on-target efforts and a recent sequence of domestic victories give them the edge. Athletic’s struggles to convert chances and their run of defeats make an away upset less likely. Historical head-to-head is thin but the market reflects what the recent data suggests: Dortmund are the side most likely to take three points.

Betting suggestion

Back Borussia Dortmund to win (1) in the 1X2 market. The 1.81 quote reflects Dortmund’s superior recent form, home advantage at Signal Iduna Park and more reliable chance creation; given Athletic’s dip in results and poor finishing in recent fixtures, the home victory is the most data-aligned single-market bet for this fixture.