Prediction Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Bundesliga on 04/10/2025

Preview: Signal Iduna Park set for another high-stakes Bundesliga clash

A packed Signal Iduna Park will welcome what promises to be a pulsating Bundesliga encounter on 04/10/2025 as Borussia Dortmund host RB Leipzig. The stage is set: Dortmund sit second in the early standings with 13 points from five matches and have been excellent at home, while Leipzig — just behind them on 12 points — arrive on the back of a string of league wins. Referee Sascha Stegemann will take charge and the expectation is for a competitive, physical contest in front of a crowd that can push Dortmund’s well-oiled machine.

Form and recent results — momentum to Dortmund?

Dortmund arrive with an enviable run: four wins and a draw from five Bundesliga matches, coupled with a convincing 4-1 victory in the Champions League this week where Marcel Sabitzer was the standout performer with a top rating of 7.85. Home statistics underline Dortmund’s defensive authority — four clean sheets and zero goals conceded at home in league play — while their attacking numbers show efficiency: 58 total shots and 29 on target across matches reflected in 11 goals scored. Their form string (W-W-W-D-W-W-D-W-L-W as summarized) points to a side in good rhythm.

Leipzig have been formidable on the road at times but show a more mixed defensive profile; they have conceded six away goals even as they’ve scored seven overall. Recent Bundesliga wins—including a narrow 1-0 victory at VfL Wolfsburg where Johan Bakayoko earned the best player rating of 8.02—demonstrate their ability to grind out results. However, their only heavy reverse came earlier against Bayern (6-0), a reminder of vulnerability when pushed onto the back foot.

Tactical edge and statistical battle

Numbers suggest Dortmund hold an edge in dangerous attacking play, averaging 61.8 dangerous attacks versus Leipzig’s 46.8. Leipzig produce more total shots (88 to Dortmund’s 58) and have a higher average shots per match, yet Dortmund’s shots are prouder in quality — 29 on target compared to Leipzig’s 23 — and Dortmund’s home defensive record is a clear advantage. Head-to-head memory from March saw Leipzig edge Dortmund 2-0 at home, but context changes with venue; Signal Iduna Park has been an impenetrable fortress for Dortmund this season.

Betting suggestion

Considering Dortmund’s defensive solidity at home, superior dangerous-attack numbers, and recent Champions League confidence-boosting win, the sensible selection in the 1X2 market is a home victory. The odds on offer (Home 1.70) reflect Dortmund as favourites and, given the data, backing Borussia Dortmund to win is the recommended play.