Match context: Signal Iduna Park awaits a clear favourite
Borussia Dortmund return to Signal Iduna Park on 13 January knowing the spotlight will be on them as overwhelming favourites against Werder Bremen. Dortmund sit second in the table in the 2025/2026 Bundesliga season, unbeaten just once in 16 outings and carrying an impressive defensive record at home: eight clean sheets and only four goals conceded in home fixtures so far. The Yellow Wall will expect an aggressive, controlled performance after a breathless 3-3 draw away to Eintracht Frankfurt on 9 January where Felix Nmecha stood out with a match-best rating.
Werder Bremen arrive with a mixed bag and defensive fragility that has shown itself on the road. Bremen have managed just two wins in their last ten across competitions and have conceded 16 goals away this season. Their recent string of low-scoring affairs — including 0-0 draws against St. Pauli and FC Augsburg — speaks to a side that can stifle chances at times but can also be brittle when pressed. That uneven form suggests Bremen will come to Dortmund with a cautious plan, hoping to frustrate and counter.
Tactical edge and statistical back-up
Numbers underline Dortmund’s edge. At home, they generate more dangerous attacks (54.88 dangerous attacks on average) and a higher shots-on-goal volume, creating opportunities consistently. Werder’s away metrics show fewer attacking forays and a lower conversion profile, while their away matches have seen both teams score in over half of their games — but that tendency has been weaker when facing top-tier hosts like Dortmund. The last Bundesliga meeting between these sides went 2-2 in January 2025, a reminder that Bremen can spring surprises, but context has changed: Dortmund’s home form and defensive solidity are now major factors.
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Betting lines reflect the story: home win priced at 1.32 with an implied probability around 76%, draw 5.25 and Werder at 8.80. With Dortmund’s home clean sheet propensity, the smart headline pick is straightforward.
Betting suggestion (final pick): Borussia Dortmund to win (1X2). The home side’s form, home defensive record and massive market support make a Dortmund victory the highest-probability outcome. Consider a conservative stake or combining this selection with a low-risk goal line (for example, Dortmund to win and under 4 goals) if you prefer a slightly safer return.
