Prediction Calcio Padova vs Avellino 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Serie B on 30/09/2025

Match outlook: tight contest at Stadio Comunale Euganeo

Calcio Padova welcome Avellino to Padova on 30 September in a fixture that promises intensity more than gaudy scorelines. Both teams arrive off victories from the last round — Padova edged Monza 1-0 while Avellino beat Virtus Entella 2-0 — and the contrast in their trajectories is compelling. Padova sit 10th with seven points from five games, scoring four and conceding five; Avellino are up at fifth with ten points and a more optimistic goals column, nine scored and seven conceded. The numbers hint at a clash between Padova’s home resilience and Avellino’s momentum on the road.

Form, recent meetings and momentum

Form tells a split story. Padova have been up and down: two wins, a draw and a couple of losses across their campaign, but they arrive here buoyed by a narrow victory at Monza where Kevin Varas earned the match’s best rating. Avellino, meanwhile, have been sharper in attack recently, putting together a string of wins that includes a 4-3 thriller away at Carrarese and a solid 2-1 triumph over Monza — Alessandro Fontanarosa was singled out as their standout performer in the latest round. Their away record shows attacking intent; Avellino’s away statistics point to an eye-catching goals tally and a tendency for matches where both teams get on the scoresheet.

Padova’s home metrics underline a balanced approach: two goals scored at home so far and two conceded, with an average of four corners and around 10.6 total shots per game. Avellino bring a slightly leaner shot profile but a higher goals return, and their away matches have featured BTTS more often — Avellino’s away BTTS rate sits noticeably higher than Padova’s home BTTS. The head-to-head note from earlier in the year favors Padova too: their recent meeting in the Serie C play-offs ended 1-0 in Padova’s favor.

Tactical edge and what to expect

Expect a measured start with both sides probing cautiously before the game opens up. Padova’s tendency to build more dangerous attacks could see them control spells inside the Avellino half, but Avellino’s knack for finding the net on the road means chances will arrive for the visitors as well. Clean sheets are not abundant for either side, yet neither has been prolific enough to promise a goal-fest — the over 2.5 data is moderate for both teams. In short, this should be a competitive, narrow affair decided by small margins and moments of quality.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Back Calcio Padova to win (odds 2.15). Bookmakers give the home side the strongest probability and Padova combine home resilience with a recent H2H victory over Avellino; with the hosts’ ability to grind out results and the psychological boost from recent wins, Padova to win is the best single-market play from the available data.