Prediction Casa Pia vs Estoril 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Liga Portugal on 03/10/2025

Match preview

The Liga Portugal midweek slate brings a low-key but intriguing duel at Campo do Cevadeiro as Casa Pia host Estoril on 3 October 2025. This is a clash between two clubs mired in the lower reaches of the table — Casa Pia sit 14th with seven points from seven games while Estoril are 15th with five — but the numbers tell a nuanced story. The surface will be intimate: a 2,500-capacity ground where marginal advantages can loom large and form swings are amplified.

Form, recent meetings and context

Recent results have been jagged for both sides. Casa Pia arrive off a 2-1 defeat at Moreirense, but that follows a 1-1 draw with Famalicão and a 2-0 win at Arouca; they have shown they can mix stubborn defence with timely goals, though their home scoring this season is surprisingly poor — just one home goal recorded to date. Estoril’s campaign has been equally inconsistent: a narrow 0-1 loss to Sporting CP, a 0-2 reverse at Gil Vicente, a bright 3-1 victory over AVS and a 2-2 away draw at Tondela. Notably, Estoril have yet to keep a clean sheet this season.

Head-to-head history supplies extra spice: the sides met late last season with Estoril running out 3-1 victors at the same venue. That result underlines that Casa Pia cannot be taken for granted at home, but context matters — both teams have shifted since April and the early-season metrics favor a tight contest rather than a rout.

Key statistics and what to expect

Statistically, Estoril edge Casa Pia in attacking intent — more total shots and a higher shots-on-target count — but they have been porous at the back, conceding 11 goals across seven matches with no clean sheets. Casa Pia’s defensive numbers are mixed; they’re conceding regularly but have managed two clean sheets and a compact attacking output. Both teams have BTTS recorded in around half of their fixtures, suggesting that while matches can be tight, chances will be created at both ends. Over/under trends point to relatively modest scoring: Casa Pia’s over-2.5 percentage is low, whereas Estoril’s is higher but not overwhelming.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Given the slender margins between the sides, home advantage and the market’s lean, the bookies give Casa Pia the fractional edge. Estoril’s inability to keep clean sheets and their solitary win so far make them the riskier pick. Expect a tense, competitive game where small moments decide the outcome rather than a high-scoring spectacle. The safest call in the 1X2 market is to side with the home team to edge this one.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Casa Pia to win (odds 2.45). Back it with a modest stake due to both teams’ inconsistency; consider a conservative stake or combo with a low-risk market to manage volatility.