Prediction Casa Pia vs Famalicão 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Liga Portugal on 21/09/2025

Context and form

Casa Pia welcome Famalicão to Campo do Cevadeiro on Sunday night in what shapes up as a classic mid-table tussle with clear edges for the visitors. The home side sit ninth after five rounds with six points, an odd split of results that includes encouraging wins away at Arouca and AVS but heavy defeats at the hands of Porto and Sporting CP. Their raw numbers underline a troubling home profile: Casa Pia’s data shows zero goals scored at home so far this campaign and a conservative attacking output overall — just four goals in five matches — while they’ve already shipped eight. That kind of home scoring drought will worry the coaching staff and fans ahead of this fixture.

Famalicão arrive in better shape. Sitting fifth with ten points, they’ve produced a steadier sequence: four wins, a draw and only one loss in the opening five, and they’ve been disciplined at the back with just two goals conceded and an eye-catching four clean sheets. Their recent ledger includes narrow away victories and a tight loss to Sporting; the best player rating in that defeat was Gustavo Sá, suggesting they still performed well despite the result. Famalicão’s attacking and defensive balance — more shots, more dangerous attacks and more corners than Casa Pia — points to a side capable of controlling phases of the match and keeping the hosts from settling.

Head-to-head and tactical clues

The most recent meeting between these clubs last season ended 2-1 in Famalicão’s favour, and the historical edge remains relevant. Statistically, Casa Pia’s offensive threat is limited at home: low goals scored and a modest shots-on-target return. Famalicão counterposes that with an expansive attack average and a defence that has kept several clean sheets; their away performances show both patience and efficiency. The bookmakers mirror the numbers, pricing Famalicão as favourites with the away win offered around 2.26, while a Casa Pia victory sits near 3.30 — a gap that reflects both form and profiles.

Betting suggestion

Given the data — Casa Pia’s lack of home goals and Famalicão’s compact defensive record and superior attacking metrics — the clearest play is on the 1X2 market. Back Famalicão to win (Away) at the listed odds of 2.26. The combination of Famalicão’s recent consistency, their previous win over Casa Pia, and Casa Pia’s worrying home scoring drought make the away victory the most likely single-market outcome.