Prediction Chelsea vs Benfica 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Champions League on 30/09/2025

Match context and recent form

Chelsea return to Stamford Bridge for a crucial Champions League clash against Benfica on 30/09/2025, and the mood around both camps is far from settled. Chelsea have been inconsistent in recent weeks, a pattern underlined by a 1-3 home defeat to Brighton on 27 September. That loss followed narrow results and heavy defeats against elite opposition; the Blues’ recent string reads L-W-L-L-D-W-W-D-W-W and shows a side capable of sparks but equally liable to lapses. Reece James earned the best player rating in the Brighton game, but overall Chelsea arrive with questions at the back and no clean sheets in the data provided.

Benfica, meanwhile, travel with a strong body of form domestically: their last outing was a 2-1 victory over Gil Vicente, and across the last ten results the Portuguese outfit show remarkable consistency — six wins, three draws and a solitary loss. Vangelis Pavlidis was Benfica’s standout performer in that win, and the numbers suggest a team that creates chances and tests opponents regularly. Despite a recent defeat to Qarabağ that dented confidence, Benfica’s attacking output and shot volume point to a side that will not sit back.

Tactical outlook and statistical edge

The underlying metrics paint a lively picture. Benfica dominate in attacking intent: 72 total shots (averaging 14.4), 20 shots on target and a high rate of dangerous attacks (43), coupled with a corners average above Chelsea’s. Chelsea’s attacking numbers look thin in comparison — only 9 total shots and 3 on target in the snapshot provided — and their defence has shown vulnerability, conceding multiple goals in recent outings.

Stamford Bridge will give Chelsea home advantage and the bookmakers reflect that with a clear lean toward the home win (1.56 on the match winner market). But the raw shot volumes and dangerous-attack data favor Benfica’s ability to test and score. Both sides have surrendered goals in recent matches, and Benfica also boast several clean sheets this season, which speaks to a team capable of quick transitions between defense and attacking threat.

Betting angle and game script

Expect end-to-end moments. Chelsea will press for control at home but Benfica’s sustained shot pressure suggests the Portuguese visitors will find openings. This matchup looks likely to produce goals on both ends rather than a low-scoring stalemate.

Betting suggestion (goal market): Back Over 2.5 goals. The combination of Chelsea’s recent defensive fragility, Benfica’s higher shot and danger metrics, and both teams’ tends toward conceding creates a strong case for at least three goals in the game. This is the primary pick based on the provided data.