Prediction Comerciantes Unidos vs UTC Cajamarca 2025 – Betting Tips for the Primera Division on 03/10/2025

Match preview — momentum, metrics and the mountain at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Comerciantes Unidos welcome UTC Cajamarca to Cutervo on October 3 in a fixture that feels less like a derby and more like a crucial six-pointer for two teams scrapping for stability in the Clausura. The home side sit 12th with 12 points from ten matches and arrive with mixed recent form — flashes of resilience bookended by heavy defeats — while UTC occupy 18th with just seven points from eleven matches and have been searching for rhythm. The setting is modest, an 8,000-capacity Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra, where home advantage and familiarity with the altitude and pitch can matter in tight, low-scoring affairs.

Form and trends that matter

Comerciantes’ last five results show a side that can grind out results; their recent 1-1 draw with Melgar followed wins over Sport Huancayo and Sport Boys and a heavy 4-0 reverse to Alianza Lima. Their record in the data points to a team that sees both ends of the pitch — 11 goals scored and 15 conceded across ten matches — and a BTTS percentage sitting a touch above half at 53.33%. UTC have been looser at times but also propped up by a stubborn streak: one win, four draws and five losses in their last ten, with their most recent outing a 2-0 win over Los Chankas where Jarlin Quintero earned the match’s best rating. UTC’s attacking numbers look lively on paper — more total shots (355 vs 268) and a higher attacks average (80.41 vs 70.5) — yet that aggression has not translated to league points, and they’ve shipped 14 goals while scoring only eight in 11 matches.

The head-to-head from May favored UTC with a 2-0 victory when they hosted Comerciantes, a reminder that historical edges exist. Still, recent patterns indicate tight margins: several 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines peppering both teams’ results. Comerciantes have recorded five clean sheets according to the stats and UTC eight, suggesting both sides can shut up shop on their day. Over/under indicators lean toward containment rather than goal-fests — over 2.5 matches hover below the 50% mark for both clubs.

Tactical outlook and match rhythm

Expect a cautious opening as two sides who concede as much as they score look to avoid early mistakes. Comerciantes should feel comfortable dictating tempo at home, relying on compact defending and transition chances, while UTC will likely push to impose themselves with higher shot volumes. But quantity has not yet equated to quality for the visitors, and the hosts’ recent ability to take points off stronger opponents suggests a disciplined performance is likely. With both teams producing a significant share of low-scoring results of late, the script points toward a tight ninety minutes where a single set-piece or moment decides the outcome.

Betting suggestion: Under 2.5 goals (goal market). Based on both teams’ recent low-scoring results, sub-50% over 2.5 figures in the data, and the tendency toward narrow scorelines, this match is more likely to produce one or two goals than a shootout.