Prediction Dynamo Dresden vs FSV Mainz 05 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the DFB Pokal on 18/08/2025

Match preview: cup drama in Dresden

The DFB Pokal opens with an intriguing first-round clash as Dynamo Dresden welcome FSV Mainz 05 to the DDV-Stadion on 18/08/2025. The atmosphere promises to be electric in Dresden’s Lennéstraße arena, a 32,066-capacity venue that will be packed for a competition where upsets are part of the romance. Florian Badstübner is the man in the middle for this one, and the early-season timing means both teams will be feeling each other out as they chase momentum ahead of the league campaigns.

Dynamo Dresden arrive on a mixed run of form. Their recent results paint a picture of a side capable of producing fireworks — a 7-0 win against Thüringen Weida and a solid 3-0 victory over Unterhaching stand alongside narrower outcomes and a couple of stumbles. Most recently Dresden fell 1-2 to Magdeburg in the 2. Bundesliga on 09/08/2025, a result that underlines some early inconsistency despite an overall return of five wins, one draw and four losses in the last ten outings. The team has shown they can score but have also been vulnerable at the back at times.

FSV Mainz 05 travel to Saxony following a productive pre-season spell. The visitors posted convincing friendly wins of 4-1 and 4-0, and finished the previous season with steady performances including draws against high-calibre opponents. Mainz’s recent ten-game sequence shows a balanced profile: three wins, four draws and three losses, suggesting resolve and the ability to grind out results. The friendly wins hint at attacking potency, and Mainz will fancy their chances to progress in a single-leg cup format where pragmatism often rules.

Bookmakers make Mainz the favorite, with the away win priced at 1.90 (implying a 52.63% probability), while Dresden are offered at 3.80 and the draw at 3.50. The odds reflect Mainz’s perceived edge — a mixture of better recent form in friendlies and a more stable recent record overall.

Betting suggestion

Based on the available data and the market prices, the best play for this tie is to back FSV Mainz 05 in the 1X2 market. The 1.90 price for an away victory combines reasonable value with the likelihood that Mainz’s recent attacking form and steadier results will be enough to see them through in a knockout encounter.