Context and form: Everton favourite at Hill Dickinson Stadium
The Premier League returns to Bramley-Moore Dock on January 7 and Everton head into Round 21 as clear favourites to collect three points at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. The bookies have Everton priced around 1.77, reflecting a 56.5% implied probability, and the market is hardly shy about which side looks steadier: Everton sit 12th with 28 points from 20 matches while Wolverhampton Wanderers occupy a precarious 20th with only six points. Everton’s recent slate carries mixed signals — a 2-4 home defeat to Brentford on January 4 was harsh, but that followed victories and draws that have kept them out of the relegation scramble for now. Wolves, by contrast, have been on a rocky run; their solitary win in the last ten came in an inspired 3-0 win over West Ham on January 3, but overall their form reads one win, one draw and eight defeats over the last ten fixtures.
Numbers that matter for the betting angle
Statistics underline Everton’s edge at home. Everton’s home scoring record is modest but balanced: 13 goals at home and 14 conceded, while Wolves’ away numbers are tepid — just 4 goals scored on the road against 17 conceded. Wolves’ defensive record this season has been a glaring weakness, surrendering 40 goals overall, and they have only managed one clean sheet all campaign. Everton, conversely, have kept eight clean sheets in the league, an indicator that they can shut games down when required. The head-to-head memory included in the data shows a recent Carabao Cup meeting where Wolves beat Everton 2-0 at home; that historical note is a reminder that cup form can differ, but league consistency and home advantage tilt the balance.
Tactically, the numbers point to Everton producing more shots (215 total vs Wolves’ 178) and creating more dangerous attacks per match. Wolves’ attack output away from home has struggled, and their corners and attacking metrics lag behind. Recent best-player performances also offer a narrative: Jack Grealish stood out for Everton in the last match despite the loss, and Mateus Mané delivered in Wolves’ surprise win — personalities who can swing moments, but not enough to erase the underlying statistical gulf.
Referee, venue and atmosphere
Thomas Kirk is named to officiate, and the crowd of up to 52,888 at Hill Dickinson Stadium will be expecting an energetic Everton performance after a bruising home defeat. Home support and stadium capacity create an atmosphere that should favour the hosts — particularly against a side that has struggled for consistency on the road.
Markets to consider and smarter planning
For punters weighing options, this match is a classic crossroads between backing the safer selection and exploring a goal market. Everton’s mixture of defensive solidity and Wolves’ porous backline point towards a home win as the clearest value in the 1X2 market, while goals could be hit or miss — Wolves have shown they can both leak and, occasionally, score in bursts. If you prefer to frame your approach around broader betting education and market choice, the piece on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets offers a useful refresher. And remember the psychological side of staking: staying level-headed after swings is essential, as discussed in How to have emotional control when placing bets?
Betting suggestion: Back Everton (Home) in the 1X2 market. The odds around 1.77 represent reasonable value given Everton’s superior home form, better defensive record and Wolves’ troubling away statistics; the market favours the hosts and the data supports that stance.
