A heavyweight test at the Allianz Arena
The Allianz Arena will stage what looks set to be a one-sided Bundesliga encounter on 11/01/2026, as league leaders FC Bayern München welcome VfL Wolfsburg. Bayern arrive perched at the summit after 15 matches with an imposing 41 points, unbeaten in the domestic campaign and carrying a goal avalanche — 55 scored and just 11 conceded — into this fixture. Their recent form reads like a statement: successive high-scoring wins in December and a 5-0 friendly win against Salzburg on 06/01/2026, where Lennart Karl grabbed top billing with a standout 9.89 rating. Wolfsburg, meanwhile, occupy 14th and bring a mixed patch of results; a narrow high-scoring reverse to SC Freiburg was their most recent league outing, and Dzenan Pejcinovic was Wolfsburg’s bright spark in that game with a 9.45 showing.
Form, stats and the narrative
Numbers tell a clear story in Munich’s favor. Bayern’s home output is devastating: 31 goals scored at home, eight clean sheets and an over-2.5 record that stands at a perfect 100% across their reported matches. Wolfsburg have shown they can find the net on the road — 10 away goals — but they have been porous at times, conceding 28 across the season and only managing a single clean sheet away. Head-to-head history adds spice; their most recent meeting ended 3-2 to Bayern, underscoring both Bayern’s firepower and Wolfsburg’s capacity to contribute to a goal-laden affair. Bookmakers reflect those realities: Bayern’s 1.10 home win price translates to a 90.9% implied probability, a heavy market endorsement.
How this game is likely to unfold
Expect Bayern to control proceedings, dominate possession and fashion the majority of chances — their average of nearly 20 shots per game and a high shots-on-target count underline that offensive threat. Wolfsburg will seek to counter and exploit transitions, but given Bayern’s defensive record at home (just six conceded) and their recent scoring spree, a close contest feels unlikely. The clash carries the hallmarks of an open game with Bayern imposing themselves but Wolfsburg still able to puncture the defence on moments of vulnerability, which pushes this matchup toward a multi-goal outcome rather than a sterile 1-0.
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Betting suggestion: Over 2.5 goals. Given Bayern’s relentless scoring at home, Wolfsburg’s tendency to be involved in high-scoring matches, the recent 3-2 head-to-head, and Bayern’s 100% over-2.5 record in the data provided, the goal market offers the best blend of probability and value for this fixture.
