Match preview: Semi-final drama in Adana
The Super Cup semi-final in Adana pits two very different momentum stories against each other as Fenerbahçe prepare to face Samsunspor at Aytaç Durak Tesisleri on 06/01/2026. This is a fixture that carries weight beyond three points: the winners move one step closer to silverware, and the neutral setting in a 33,543-capacity venue promises a charged atmosphere. Fenerbahçe arrive with clear forward momentum after a string of convincing victories, including dominant 4-0 wins and a 3-0 away result that underline their attacking potency in recent weeks. Their last outing was a narrow 1-2 defeat to Beşiktaş in the Turkish Cup, but that result should be read in the context of an otherwise stout run — five wins, four draws and a single loss across their latest form sequence.
Samsunspor, by contrast, have been a mixed bag. Their cup win over Eyüpspor on 24 December will have lifted spirits, and Soner Aydoğdu earned the best player rating that night, but their league form has seen stiffer tests produce varying outcomes. A 2-0 defeat to Göztepe and a hard-fought 3-2 loss to Galatasaray are reminders that they can be brittle against top-quality opposition. The one recorded H2H meeting this season finished 0-0 in the Super Lig, a sign that Samsunspor can frustrate — but repeating that defensive shutout against a Fenerbahçe side that has found the net freely will be a tall order.
Tactical outlook and betting context
Bookmakers have installed Fenerbahçe as clear favorites with home odds of 1.56 and an implied probability north of 64%, while the draw sits at 4.00 and an away shock is priced at 5.90. Those numbers reflect not only Fenerbahçe’s recent firepower but also their consistency in performance. The numbers in the data paint a picture of a side that looks sharper and more confident going into a knockout clash, whereas Samsunspor will need to marshal a compact, disciplined approach and rely on moments of transition to threaten.
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Betting suggestion Based on form, recent results and the market probability, the recommended play for the 1X2 market is to back Fenerbahçe to win at 1.56. It’s the clearest value given their attacking sequence and the bookmaker’s confidence. As always, size your stake responsibly and treat the pick as a reasoned preference rather than a certainty — cup football answers in half-chances and moments, but on the balance of available data Fenerbahçe look best placed to progress.
