Prediction Fiorentina vs Roma 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for Serie A on 05/10/2025

Match context and mood in Florence

Fiorentina return to the Stadio Artemio Franchi on October 5 still searching for their first league victory of the 2025/2026 campaign. The Viola sit uncomfortably low in the table in 16th place after five rounds, collecting three draws and two defeats. Concerning attacking numbers underline their struggles: just three goals scored and six conceded across those fixtures, and a run of results that reads more like a relegation scrap than a mid-season reset. Their most recent outing ended in a 0-0 draw away at Pisa — a match where Marin Pongracic earned praise as the best player on the evening — but the broader trend is clear: offensive bluntness at home and a lack of wins that has the stadium atmosphere tense rather than celebratory.

Roma arrive with rhythm and defensive discipline

Opposite them, Roma travel to Florence carrying momentum and a defensive record that has proven hard to break this season. Sitting second in the standings with 12 points from five matches, Roma have already registered four wins and only a single loss, conceding just once in Serie A so far. Their away defensive numbers are particularly eye-catching — zero goals conceded away according to the available data — and four clean sheets in their sample point to a side capable of frustrating opponents. Despite a hiccup in midweek Europa League action where LOSC Lille edged them 1-0 and Lorenzo Pellegrini stood out even in defeat, Roma's domestic form suggests confidence and structure.

Tactics, history and odds — what they tell us

The last Serie A meeting recorded between these sides saw Roma edge Fiorentina 1-0, a reminder that low-scoring affairs are the likeliest outcome when these teams clash. Statistical snapshots reinforce that expectation: Fiorentina’s matches have produced just two over-2.5 games out of five, while Roma have not recorded an over-2.5 outcome in the same span. Shots and attacking metrics favour the visitors — Roma average more total and dangerous attacks — and their higher shots-on-target tally implies clinical finishing when chances arrive. Market pricing reflects a competitive fixture: Roma are listed at 2.40 for the away win, Fiorentina at 2.92 and the draw at 3.25, suggesting bookmakers see value on both sides but slightly favour the visitors.

Betting suggestion (1X2) I recommend backing Roma to win the match (Away). The combination of Roma’s stout defensive record, superior points haul and consistent away discipline — plus the recent head-to-head 1-0 result — makes an away victory the most convincing outcome from the available data. The 2.40 price offers value against a Fiorentina side still searching for goals and wins.