Prediction Fluminense vs Lanús 2025 – Betting Tips for the Copa Sudamericana on 24/09/2025

Stakes and setting: Maracanã ready for a classic return leg

The quarter-final second leg in the Copa Sudamericana brings Fluminense back to the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho on 24/09/2025, and the Maracanã will be buzzing with everything on the line. After a tight first leg in Argentina that ended 1-0 to Lanús, this Rio de Janeiro showdown has the feel of a high-voltage, do-or-die fixture. Fluminense arrive having corrected course in the domestic championship with a 1-0 win over Vitória on 20 September where goalkeeper Fábio earned the praise as the best player. Lanús, fresh from a 2-1 victory over Platense on 20 September and with José Canale standing out, will travel to Brazil with confidence after winning the first leg.

Form, numbers and what they tell us

Statistically this tie paints an intriguing picture. Fluminense’s home numbers are imposing: 11 goals scored at home and, most notably, zero goals conceded at home across the reported data, producing five clean sheets. That defensive solidity at the Maracanã cannot be overlooked; it’s what makes the hosts heavy favourites in the straight match market and explains the bookmakers’ lean toward Fluminense at 1.61. Lanús, meanwhile, show solidity too — six clean sheets overall and a healthier recent run with six wins in their last ten outings — and they have already demonstrated they can get the result in this tie by taking the first leg.

Offensively the teams produce similar volumes of shots and attacking activity, with total shots and shots-on-target figures close between them. Lanús’s away record indicates they can both score and keep tight lines; their away goals scored and conceded balance suggests they are comfortable on the road but not impregnable.

Tactically this will be a clash of resolve versus urgency. Fluminense must flip the script after that 1-0 reversal in the first meeting and the Maracanã crowd will demand an aggressive start. Lanús can play with the lead, look to control transitions and exploit any gaps as Fluminense push forward. Clean sheets and low over/under indicators in the season statistics hint that this could be a cautious, tactical contest rather than an all-out goal fest.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Given the numbers and the context, the sensible projection is that Fluminense will press hard and find a way to win the match at home, but it likely won’t be a wild, high-scoring night. The market reflects that confidence: the home win at 1.61 shows bookmakers believe Fluminense are the best bet for the match result. Backing Fluminense to win the match (1X2 market) combines strong home defensive form, the need to overturn a one-goal deficit, and the weight of expectation at the Maracanã. Suggested pick: Fluminense to win (1X2).