Match context and how the cards are stacked
Tynecastle Park will be buzzing on 03/01/2026 when Hearts welcome Livingston in Round 21 of the Scottish Premiership. The Edinburgh faithful have plenty to cheer about: Hearts sit top of the table after 19 matches with 41 points, boasting a record of 12 wins, 5 draws and only 2 defeats. Home form has been especially convincing — 20 goals scored and just seven conceded at Tynecastle, eight clean sheets and an attacking profile that averages over 14 shots per game. Their recent sequence reads like a team hitting form, with wins over Rangers and Celtic earlier in December before a narrow defeat to Hibernian in their most recent outing; Cammy Devlin was highlighted as Hearts’ best performer in that match.
Livingston arrive in a very different mood. Twelfth in the table with a solitary win from 19 games, they have picked up just nine points and shipped 39 goals overall. Recent results underline a troubling run: heavy defeats and only three draws from their last ten outings leave them without a win in this stretch, and their solitary clean sheet away all season speaks to defensive fragility. Their latest match saw a 1-3 home loss to Dundee United where Connor McLennan stood out for the winners.
Tactical outlook and statistical edge
Statistically Hearts control this fixture. Their attacking numbers are superior — more total shots, more shots inside the box, and a higher dangerous attacks average — while defensively they are far stingier than Livingston. The bookmakers mirror that dominance: Hearts are heavy favourites at 1.35, with a calculated probability north of 74% to claim three points. Livingston’s away numbers are poor; only seven losses fewer would be generous to their recent form. The head-to-head earlier in the campaign already saw Hearts prevail away at Livingston, another psychological edge for the hosts.
For bettors mapping markets and choosing where value lies, fundamentals matter as much as odds. If you want guidance on how to approach market selection, consult Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets, and if you are curious about alternative angles like handicaps, see What does it mean the handicap market in sports betting?
Betting suggestion
Given form, numbers and market pricing, the clearest play is a straight 1X2 selection: back Hearts to win at home. The combination of a rampant home attack, a sturdy defensive record at Tynecastle and Livingston’s deep slump make Hearts the logical favourite. Stake proportionately to your bankroll and consider keeping exposure light despite short odds; a confident prediction is Hearts to win, with a likely scoreline of 2-0 or 2-1 reflective of Hearts’ ability to control matches while still conceding the occasional goal.
