Inter arrive at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on October 4 riding a wave of confidence. Recent results read like a statement of intent: victories over Slavia Praha (3-0), Cagliari (2-0), Sassuolo (2-1) and a sparkling 2-0 away at Ajax, with the only recent blemish a 4-3 thriller at Juventus. Those performances underline a side that is prolific and aggressive in attack — 13 goals in five group fixtures — while producing heavy shot volumes and territorial control. The Champions League win over Slavia Praha highlighted the collective quality, with Lautaro Martínez singled out as the standout performer in that last outing.
Cremonese, by contrast, have made themselves hard to beat. Undefeated across their five league fixtures with two wins and three draws, they have ground out low-scoring outcomes: consecutive 0-0s and a 1-1 draw at Como underline a team that can frustrate. Federico Baschirotto earned plaudits in the last league outing for his performance as Cremonese salvaged a point. Their ability to avoid defeat and keep matches tight makes them a tricky opponent on the road, even when facing heavyweight opposition.
Statistically the gulf is clear. Inter dominate in shots (94 total, 18.8 per match), corners and dangerous attacks, reflecting an overwhelming attacking footprint at home. Their matches trend toward goals — four of five have gone over 2.5 — and their home defensive record also looks solid given the volume they create. Cremonese are compact and efficient: just 33 total shots and an average of 6.6 per game, but they have conceded relatively few goals and boast two clean sheets in the recent sample. Their away numbers point to a pragmatic approach, relying on organization rather than open exchanges.
Head-to-head history gives Inter a psychological edge; the most recent meeting on record ended 2-1 in Inter’s favor. Add the bookmakers’ view — Inter installed as heavy favorites at 1.19, translating to an implied probability north of 80% — and the picture is clear: Inter are expected to control proceedings and push for a result.
Expect Inter to take the initiative at San Siro, pressing high and hunting early goals. Cremonese will absorb pressure and try to hit on the counter or capitalize on set-piece situations, with their recent draws signaling resilience rather than attacking ambition. The contest should favor Inter’s superior firepower and territorial dominance, though Cremonese’s undefeated run warns that a clean sheet or a late equalizer cannot be ruled out entirely.
Based on form, underlying numbers and the market assessment, the clearest play is a straight 1X2 selection: back Inter to win. The bookmakers make Inter heavy favorites at 1.19 (approx. 84% implied probability). For those seeking a conservative, data-driven pick the home victory is the optimal choice.
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