Form guide and match context
İstanbul Başakşehir welcome Gaziantep F.K. to the Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu on December 22 with home advantage and clear momentum in the Super Lig table. The hosts sit ninth with 20 points from 16 matches, while Gaziantep are a place above them in eighth with 23 points, but the raw numbers mask differing trajectories. Başakşehir arrive after a mixed set of results in the league and a narrow cup exit to Galatasaray last week, where Onur Ergün was the standout performer in a game that finished 1-0. Gaziantep, meanwhile, have had turbulence of their own: a heavy 5-2 cup defeat at Rizespor and a recent 1-0 loss to Göztepe underline defensive fragility even as their attacking return of 23 goals suggests abundance when they click.
The bookmakers have made a clear call: the home victory is priced at 1.74, reflecting a perceived 57.5% probability, with the draw trading at 3.80 and an away win at 4.50. That market assessment lines up with the form and head-to-head memory from April when Başakşehir prevailed 2-1 at home, a reminder that these teams have produced decisive, goal-laden encounters on this turf.
Tactical storyline and statistical edge
Statistically, Başakşehir leverage a solid defensive profile at home—8 goals conceded away but only 9 at home—and have managed six clean sheets this season. They generate an average of 12.75 shots per game and press with dangerous attacks measured at 44.38, numbers that translate into a team capable of controlling the rhythm on familiar ground. Gaziantep are more adventurous in search of goals, averaging 14.13 shots and showing a higher over-2.5 propensity overall; their games frequently produce goals, but their backline’s 25 goals conceded is a liability that can be exposed on the road.
Recent head-to-head, cup context and the home side’s willingness to control possession point toward a match where İstanbul Başakşehir can impose themselves, yet Gaziantep’s tendency toward open affairs makes a contest where both sides look for goals very plausible. For bettors who want to refine their approach around goals, consider reading more about when to time entries into goal markets via The right time to place bets on goal markets, and if you’re managing stakes this season the primer on How to have emotional control when placing bets? is a useful companion to any tip.
Betting suggestion: Back İstanbul Başakşehir in the 1X2 market. The home side’s favorable odds at 1.74, superior home defensive record, recent home H2H success and the market-implied 57% probability make the home win the clearest value play from the available options. Keep stakes moderate given cup fatigue for both sides and consider combining this with a small goal-based hedge if you prefer a safer angle
