Prediction Lechia Gdańsk vs Wisła Płock 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Ekstraklasa on 03/10/2025

Form swings and context in Gdańsk

Lechia Gdańsk arrive at Stadion Energa Gdańsk in a mood of pronounced inconsistency. The home side sit 12th in the table after ten matches, a record that reads three wins, two draws and five defeats, and a worrying defensive return of 25 goals conceded. Their recent results have been a mixed bag: a bright run featuring three wins in a cluster was abruptly halted by a 3-0 reverse at Korona Kielce, where Matej Rodin was the standout performer for the victors. Lechia’s attack is lively enough — 18 goals scored across the campaign — and their matches tend to entertain, with over 2.5 goals landing in around 70% of their fixtures. But the defensive fractures are clear, and home advantage at a 41,984-capacity ground will be needed to steady the ship.

Wisła Płock’s steadier upward curve

By contrast Wisła Płock have climbed to 5th and look the more coherent outfit on recent evidence. In nine matches they have accumulated 17 points through five wins, two draws and just two defeats. Their form line shows more resilience: a recent string of positive results and a solid defensive ledger — only six goals conceded — underpin their climb. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Katowice, with midfielder Zan Rogelj earning plaudits for his performance. Wisła’s fixtures have been lower-scoring overall: over 2.5 goals have been less common for them (around 22% of matches), suggesting a compact, pragmatic approach away from home.

How the numbers shape a scenario for October 3

The odds available reflect a tight contest: bookmakers make Lechia marginal favorites at 2.35 (42.55% implied probability), while Wisła Płock are priced 2.88 (34.72%), draw 3.35. But the underlying data points toward an intriguing value angle. Lechia’s defensive vulnerability is stark — conceding 25 in ten — and though their matches often see multiple goals, Wisła’s defensive discipline and recent string of positive results make them a team capable of exploiting those weaknesses on the road. The H2H note — a 1-1 friendly from last year — adds to the sense this can be a cagey, tactical affair with a fine margin deciding it.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Prediction: Despite the home nod in the market, the balance of form and defensive solidity suggests Wisła Płock are the smarter play on 03/10/2025. Betting suggestion: back Wisła Płock to win (1X2) at around 2.88. This selection captures the value on a team with fewer defensive leaks and a superior run of form, against a Lechia side prone to conceding and coming off a recent heavy defeat. As always, stake responsibly — consider a moderate stake size given the intrinsic unpredictability of the Ekstraklasa