Liverpool welcome Burnley to Anfield with momentum and numbers on their side
Liverpool arrive at Anfield riding a run that has steadied after a midseason wobble. Their FA Cup win over Barnsley (4-1) was emphatic, with Dominik Szoboszlai singled out as the standout performer after a man-of-the-match showing. That result capped a sequence in which Liverpool have avoided defeat in their last ten matches across competitions, producing five wins and five draws in that span. At home the Reds have been productive — 15 goals scored at Anfield this season and seven clean sheets — a profile that makes them a heavy favorite against Burnley, who sit 19th and have struggled to turn form into points.
Burnley arrive having rediscovered some attacking verve in the FA Cup, hammering Millwall 5-1, Jacob Bruun Larsen earning the best-player nod on that day. Still, their Premier League ledger tells a starker story: only three wins from 21 matches, 22 goals scored and 41 conceded, and a worrying run of six defeats in their last ten league outings. Traveling to Anfield — a fortress with a 61,276 capacity and a partisan crowd — amplifies the uphill task for Vincent Kompany’s side, making them vulnerable to Liverpool’s pressing and attacking averages.
Tactical and statistical picture — why the odds make sense
The market underlines the gulf: bookmakers price Liverpool at 1.23 for a home win, reflecting an implied probability north of 80 percent. The underlying data supports that confidence. Liverpool average far more shots, create more dangerous attacks and boast a healthier goals-against balance at home. Burnley’s numbers show fewer shots and dangerous actions per match and just three clean sheets all season. While Burnley can spring surprises — their 5-1 FA Cup result demonstrates they still carry threat on the break — consistency has eluded them in the league.
Expect Liverpool to control territory and tempo, forcing Burnley to defend deeper and lean on counterattacks. The referee appointment, Andrew Madley, and the fixture’s mid-January timing after FA Cup fixtures for both teams suggests fitness won’t be a decisive wildcard; both sides have recent match minutes, but Liverpool’s squad depth and home advantage should marginally tilt the contest toward the hosts.
For punters focused on goal markets, Liverpool’s home scoring combined with Burnley’s susceptibility suggests this is a match where the timing of goals matters — consider reading up on the right time to place bets on goal markets before locking in a trade. And for those building staking plans, a refresher on odds and probabilities in sports betting can help align risk with reward.
Betting suggestion: Back Liverpool to win (1) in the 1X2 market. The home side’s form, Anfield advantage and the bookmakers’ market probability strongly favour a Liverpool victory on 17/01/2026.
