Match preview: city derby at Sammy Ofer promises a one-sided affair
The Haifa derby at Sammy Ofer Stadium on 05/01/2026 carries two different narratives. Maccabi Haifa arrive in confident mood after a string of emphatic results — big away victories like 4-0 at Ashdod and an eye-catching 8-1 demolition of Maccabi Ahi Nazareth underline a side that can score in volume. They sit fourth in the table with 25 points from 16 matches and a healthy goal difference thanks to 31 strikes overall. Hapoel Haifa, by contrast, are ninth with 18 points and a run of results that reads poorly: seven losses in their last ten outings, including heavy defeats such as 5-0 at Maccabi Tel Aviv and a 2-0 reverse to Bnei Sakhnin. Home advantage at Sammy Ofer — capacity 30,942 — will be significant and bookmakers reflect that, pricing Maccabi Haifa around 1.36 for the win.
Key numbers and form — why the stats favour the hosts
Look beyond the headlines and the numbers paint a clear picture. Maccabi Haifa average 15 total shots per match with 80 on-target efforts across the season, more dangerous attacks (58.13 average) and a higher corners average (6.06) than their city rivals. They’ve also kept six clean sheets and conceded fewer goals both home and away. Hapoel Haifa’s attacking output is modest in comparison — 12.75 shots per game and 69 shots on target overall — while their defensive record is leakier, conceding 26 goals so far. The derby’s earlier meeting this season ended 1-1, so Hapoel can point to that as evidence they can frustrate, but form and underlying metrics strongly tilt towards Maccabi.
Momentum and recent players of note
Momentum matters: Maccabi’s recent sequence shows five wins among their last ten with a solitary loss, while Hapoel’s recent form shows just two wins and a raft of defeats. Kenji Gorré was the standout performer in Maccabi’s most recent win at Ashdod and headlines their match report, while Dor Malul was Hapoel’s top-rated player in their loss to Bnei Sakhnin. Those individual flashes won’t override the broader trends: quality, firepower and home rhythm are firmly with the hosts.
Prediction and betting tip
The clearest play from the data is a straight 1X2 selection: back Maccabi Haifa to win. The market prices a home victory at roughly 1.36, which mirrors a strong 73% implied probability and is justified by superior form, shot dominance, better defensive discipline and recent heavy-score wins. For readers who want to refine their approach around timing and markets, consult soccer betting tips and the choice of markets to decide stake size and market selection. If you prefer to study goal-timing and entry points, read about the right time to place bets on goal markets to add context to any over/under strategies.
Betting suggestion: 1 (Maccabi Haifa to win) — market: 1X2. The data supports a confident home pick; consider a conservative stake given the low return on short-priced favourites.
