Prediction Mallorca vs Atlético Madrid 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for La Liga on 21/09/2025

Pre-match picture: form, facts and atmosphere at Son Moix

Mallorca return to Son Moix under pressure and with little margin for error. After four league rounds they sit 19th with a single point, having failed to register a single win so far this season and leaking nine goals while scoring only four. The recent run reads like a cautionary tale: narrow defeats to Espanyol and Real Madrid, a goalless draw late in the last campaign, and a heavy home loss to Barcelona — the results underline a side that struggles to turn chances into points. Atlético Madrid travel in much better shape in relative terms. Sitting mid-table in 11th and holding five points from four matches, they arrive with momentum gleaned from a 2-0 domestic win over Villarreal and a valiant 3-2 loss at Anfield in the Champions League where Marcos Llorente earned top billing with an 8.36 rating. That continental outing proves Atlético still possess attacking punch even away from home, but it also raises questions about fatigue and defensive concentration after travel.

Key trends and what they imply for the game

Statistically, Mallorca’s home matches have often produced goals — 75% of their fixtures have gone over 2.5 — yet they have kept no clean sheets and are conceding at an alarming rate. Atlético are edging the shot and chance creation metrics: modestly higher totals in shots and a clear advantage in dangerous attacks, pointing to a side capable of breaking down Mallorca’s fragile backline. Recent H2H history gives Atlético an additional psychological edge; they beat Mallorca 2-0 in February, and Sunday’s odds reflect that hierarchy. The bookies make Atlético favorite at 1.76 (implying a 56.82% chance), with the draw priced at 3.50 and the home win long at 4.85. This market pricing mirrors form and numbers — Mallorca are desperately in search of confidence, while Atlético remain a practical, goal-producing outfit even when not at their best.

Prediction and betting tip

Expect Atlético Madrid to impose a controlled but incisive approach. Mallorca will fight and can offer moments in transition, but their defensive record and lack of wins this season make an upset unlikely. The most sensible market to back here is the match winner. With Atlético’s recent victories, superior attacking danger and a realistic probability assigned by bookmakers, the pragmatic call is to side with the visitors.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Atlético Madrid to win (value 1.76, implied probability 56.82%).