Big occasion at the Etihad as City host Exeter
Manchester City welcome Exeter City to the Etihad Stadium on 10/01/2026 in a Round 3 FA Cup tie that feels like a foregone conclusion on paper but still carries the romance of the Cup. The setting could not be grander — Etihad Campus, a 53,400-capacity arena, with Adam Herczeg named as the match referee — and Manchester City's recent sequence of results underlines why bookmakers make them overwhelming favourites. City arrive unbeaten through their last ten outings with a form summary showing seven wins and three draws; their most recent Premier League fixture ended 1-1 with Brighton & Hove Albion. That run speaks to consistency and resilience at home, where the Citizens have closed out big matches even when goals have been at a premium.
Exeter arrive with spirit but mixed form
Exeter City come into this fixture with moments of energy and optimism — recent results include a 2-2 draw with Huddersfield Town and wins over Luton Town and AFC Wimbledon — but their form string tells a more volatile story: five wins, one draw and four losses in the last ten, per the provided report. Their latest match was a League One draw, while Manchester City’s latest was in the Premier League, so the two sides have not shared the same weekly test. Exeter’s results show they can score and grind out points, but a trip to Manchester for a cup tie against a side on a long unbeaten streak is a huge ask.
The market reflects that gulf in status and recent momentum. Bookmaker odds place Manchester City at 1.06 (a 94.34% implied probability), while a draw is 11.50 and an Exeter win is priced at 34.00. Those numbers are decisive: punters and bookmakers alike expect City to progress with authority.
Tactical and betting takeaways
Expect Manchester City to control possession and shape the game around tempo and chances created; their recent games show they can grind out results even when matches are tight. Exeter will likely look to defend compactly and seek moments to counter or set-piece opportunities, but historical context and the odds suggest that the visitors need an almost flawless performance to pull off a shock.
For readers looking to refine their betting approach around matches like this, it helps to educate your methods and timing: consult resources such as The right time to place bets on goal markets to understand when a goals market might offer value, and work on your mindset with guides like How to have emotional control when placing bets? which can help with discipline during one-sided fixtures.
Betting suggestion
Given the data, the clearest value lies in the 1X2 market: back Manchester City to win. The 1.06 home price reflects an overwhelming probability and fits with City’s unbeaten run and home advantage at the Etihad. This is a straight, low-risk cup pick based on form and market consensus.
