Prediction Mauritania vs Togo 2026 – Betting Tips for the CAF World Cup Qualifiers on 05/09/2025

Preview: a tight encounter under Nouakchott lights

Mauritania welcome Togo to the Stade Olympique de Nouakchott on 05/09/2025 in what promises to be a tense Group Stage showdown of the CAF World Cup Qualifiers. The scene is set in a compact 5,000-capacity venue where home crowd energy can be felt sharply — and Mauritania will hope to make home advantage count after mixed results in recent weeks. The form lines read intriguingly: Mauritania arrive with a sequence showing resilience and volatility, while Togo come in with attacking intent but uneven outcomes. There’s enough in the numbers to make this fixture feel like a chess match between a side solid at times and an opponent that can turn a game on its head.

What the recent form and stats suggest

Mauritania's last block of matches contains encouraging results, including wins over Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic, and only a couple of defeats. Their reported sequence has yielded three wins and four draws from ten outings, a hint of steadiness. Statistically they create a decent volume of attacks — an average of 81.8 attacks per match and 44.2 dangerous attacks — but have shown some defensive vulnerability at home, with five goals conceded in home fixtures according to the provided home stats. That combination points to a team that can press forward and create chances but is not impenetrable.

Togo, meanwhile, bring a more direct attacking threat on paper. Their attacking averages are higher — 92.5 attacks and nearly 68 dangerous attacks per match — and they boast a much higher shots-on-target tally (28 versus Mauritania’s 17 in the same sample). Togo’s recent matches include a heavy win over Equatorial Guinea and a tough loss to Senegal; their form is patchy but capable of delivering high-quality attacking spells. Notably, their recent fixture against Mauritania earlier in the campaign ended 2-2, a result that underlines the likelihood of open, end-to-end football when these two meet.

Tactical outlook and key factors

Expect Togo to push the tempo, using their superior shots and dangerous-attack averages to unsettle a Mauritanian backline that has conceded at home. Mauritania will likely try to balance forward ambition with defensive organization, looking to exploit counter opportunities and the familiarity of Nouakchott’s pitch. The previous 2-2 tie between these teams hints at attacking confidence on both sides and suggests neither will be content to sit back for 90 minutes.

Betting suggestion Both teams to score (BTTS) looks the most compelling market here. The combination of Togo’s higher attacking output and Mauritania’s tendency to concede at home — plus an entertaining 2-2 head-to-head earlier in the year — points to both sides finding the net. Back BTTS for a sensible, value-driven play in this qualifier.