Prediction Metz vs Le Havre 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Ligue 1 on 28/09/2025

Context and form heading into Stade Saint-Symphorien

Longeville-lès-Metz will host a crucial early-season clash as Metz welcome Le Havre to the Stade Saint-Symphorien on 28 September. The picture for Metz is grim: five league matches played, a solitary point and an alarming goal difference — five scored and 13 conceded — has them rooted to 18th in the table. Recent results underline defensive fragility; a 5-2 defeat at Monaco and successive losses to Paris and Lyon have left confidence shaken and home fans edgy in a stadium that holds just over 26,000.

Le Havre arrive in a marginally healthier state. Sitting 15th with four points from five matches, they have shown they can score — six goals so far — and their shot metrics suggest more initiative going forward. Le Havre average 12.4 shots per game with a higher number of shots hitting the target than Metz, and their offensive numbers pair with a greater volume of dangerous attacks. Their last outing saw Issa Soumaré earn the best-player rating after a comeback draw with Lorient, a small morale boost before the trip.

What the numbers say — patterns to watch

The underlying statistics favour goals. Both teams have had three of five league fixtures finish over 2.5 goals, and recent scorelines across both sides have been open affairs — Metz’s 5-2 loss and 3-2 defeat, and Le Havre’s 3-1 win earlier in the season point to defensive issues and an ability to find the net. Metz’s home record is porous: they’ve yet to keep a clean sheet and have conceded heavily at both home and away. Le Havre’s attacking profile, with more total shots and dangerous attacks, suggests they are likely to create chances and test Metz’s vulnerable backline.

Head-to-head history adds a modest nudge: their last meeting in Ligue 1 ended 1-0 to Le Havre, indicating that Le Havre can take results here, but recent form suggests a high likelihood of both sides contributing to the scoreboard rather than a sterile stalemate.

Betting suggestion

Based on the defensive vulnerabilities of Metz, Le Havre’s superior attacking metrics and the shared tendency toward high-scoring matches this season, the strongest market to target is the goal market. The recommended pick is Over 2.5 goals. This selection aligns with both teams’ recent matches producing multiple goals and the statistical over-2.5 rate of 60% for each side in the fixtures available. Treat this as a considered, moderate-confidence play given the close 1X2 odds, and stake accordingly.