Prediction Mirassol vs Bragantino 2025 – Betting Tips for the Serie A on 01/10/2025

Stakes and setting: Mirassol’s fortress vs a Bragantino side in struggle

As the Serie A heads into Round 26, Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia will host a mouthwatering clash with Mirassol defending a strong home run against a Bragantino unit that has stumbled badly on recent form. The stadium’s intimate 15,000 capacity should deliver a lively atmosphere on 01/10/2025 as Mirassol look to capitalize on momentum and local advantage. The numbers on paper paint a clear picture: Mirassol sit fourth and have been solid at home, while Bragantino hover in mid-table and carry an alarming sequence of poor results into this fixture.

Form and recent performances

Mirassol arrive after a narrow defeat to Atlético Mineiro but overall carry confidence from a string of wins — five victories, three draws and only two losses in their latest ten outings. Their recent results show an attack that can be prolific at times (a notable 5-1 home win earlier in the season) and a defense that has been stingy at their own stadium, conceding only 10 goals at home across the campaign. Reinaldo's influence was highlighted in the most recent match as the best-rated performer, underlining Mirassol’s ability to find decisive contributors when it matters.

Bragantino’s recent trajectory is worrying: just one win in their last ten, with seven losses and only two positive results. Their away record reveals a side vulnerable in the final third and porous at the back, conceding 18 goals on the road. Cleiton put in a bright performance in their draw with Santos, but isolated displays haven’t halted a slide where consistency is the major casualty.

Tactical expectation and statistical edge

Statistically Mirassol boast a healthy goal return and a robust home defensive ledger. They generate slightly more shots and have a marginally higher shots-on-target volume than Bragantino, with dangerous attacks averaging a touch higher as well. Bragantino’s numbers point to an attack capable of contributing goals — which is reflected in their higher over-2.5 percentage away — but their defensive frailties on the road make them susceptible to conceding. Historical context offers one meeting earlier this season when Bragantino eked out a 1-0 win at home, yet the current run of form swings the pendulum toward Mirassol in front of their fans.

Betting suggestion: For a straight and data-backed play, back a Mirassol win in the 1X2 market. The bookmakers’ price for the home victory sits at 1.91, with implied probability around 52%, and aligns with Mirassol’s superior home defensive record, recent positive form, and Bragantino’s troubling away sequence. This pick balances value and prudence given the available information.