Prediction Napoli vs Genoa 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Serie A on 05/10/2025

Match overview: Napoli favourite at the Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli return to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on 5 October as clear favourites to collect three points against Genoa. The fixture drops in Round 6 of the Serie A regular season and carries the added weight of a Napoli side riding a confident run in all competitions. Referee Federico La Penna will take charge in front of a packed crowd in Napoli, where the home team’s attacking numbers and recent form paint a picture of control. The bookmakers mirror that sentiment — the market quotes Napoli at 1.48 for the match winner with a probability pushed above 67%, while Genoa are outsiders at 7.00 and the draw is available at 3.95.

Form and recent results: momentum versus struggle

Napoli’s recent slate shows a team that knows how to find the back of the net; in their last five matches they recorded wins over Sporting CP in the Champions League and a convincing 3-1 away success at Fiorentina among other positive results. The detailed recent report even highlights Kevin De Bruyne as the best performer with an 8.3 rating in the latest continental victory — evidence of individual class impacting the side’s collective fortunes. Napoli’s group stats underline the attacking threat: 10 goals scored in five league matches, a healthy average of 16.8 total shots per match with 32 shots on target across those outings, and an attacks average north of 111 per game. They have conceded five times in the league but remain prolific in front of their fans where they have scored four at home so far.

Genoa, conversely, arrive under pressure. Sitting 19th with just two points from five matches and only two goals scored, their season has been a fight for stability. Recent form shows defensive vulnerabilities — a 0-3 defeat to Lazio is the freshest example — and their away numbers are modest: 10.2 shots per game, 18 shots on target over the period, and only two away goals in the league. Genoa’s discipline and defensive resilience have also been inconsistent; their averages suggest they concede more often than they keep clean sheets.

Head-to-head context offers a little spice — the recent meeting in May finished 2-2 — but the current trajectories are divergent. Napoli’s attack and superior chance creation, combined with Genoa’s scoring struggles, set the tone heading into this weekend.

Betting suggestion

Based on form, underlying statistics and market pricing, the clearest value is in the 1X2 market backing Napoli to win. The home side’s volume of chances, recent wins and the 1.48 price from the bookmakers make the home victory the most probable outcome. Recommended pick: Napoli to win (1) — stake size should reflect personal bankroll and risk tolerance.