Prediction Nice vs Paris 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Ligue 1 on 28/09/2025

Clash on the Riviera: Nice aim to steady the ship against a fragile Paris

The Allianz Riviera will hum with expectation on 28 September as Nice host Paris in a Ligue 1 encounter that promises drama rather than dominance. Both sides arrive level on six points from five games, occupying 12th and 11th respectively, and the table doesn’t tell the whole story: these are teams capable of spark and collapse in equal measure. Nice, playing at home under referee A. Kherradji, will look to bounce back from a midweek Europa League reverse to Roma — a 2-1 scoreline that left Antoine Mendy singled out as the best player in that defeat — while Paris are smarting from a 2-3 loss at home to Strasbourg where Ilan Kebbal’s display could not prevent a defensive meltdown.

Nice have shown glimpses of solidity at the Allianz Riviera, scoring four times at home this season but also conceding two — a profile that suggests home matches can be open and entertaining. Their recent domestic form has been mixed: wins over Nantes and Auxerre sandwich heavier reverses at Brest and Le Havre. Paris, by contrast, have been more prolific in front of goal across all venues, netting nine times in five matches, but they have leaked 12 — numbers that point to entertaining football but little defensive reassurance.

Tactical tone and what to expect

Statistically the tie leans towards goals. Nice have seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of their matches, and Paris have matched that with an 80% over 2.5 rate. Both teams produce a similar volume of shots and inside-box activity — Nice with 75 total shots and Paris with 74 — and neither has been stingy with attempts on target. Clean sheets are scarce: Nice have managed one, Paris none. Those figures, combined with recent scorelines — Paris 2-3 Strasbourg, Paris 3-2 Metz, Marseille 5-2 Paris — suggest defensive fragility on both sides and a propensity for high-scoring affairs.

Referee A. Kherradji will preside over a fixture where intensity is likely to be high and cards could become part of the narrative; Nice’s higher yellow-card average hints at physical matches at the Riviera. Paris’s dangerous attacking displays and their tendency to open games up should lead to entertaining end-to-end action rather than a cautious stalemate.

Betting suggestion Given the pattern of goals conceded and the strong over-2.5 records for both teams — coupled with recent scorelines showing frequent multiple-goal games — the best market to back here is the goal market. Suggested bet: Over 2.5 goals. This selection aligns with the offensive numbers, both teams’ recent high-scoring results, and the home advantage that should coax Nice into an open duel rather than a defensive slog.