Prediction Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto 2025 season – Betting Tips for the Copa Colombia on 02/10/2025

Match overview — Palogrande set for a decisive clash

Once Caldas return to Estadio Palogrande with momentum and home advantage as they prepare to face Deportivo Pasto in the Round of 16 of the Copa Colombia on 02/10/2025. The Manizales crowd will expect a physical, attacking display after a recent league thriller in which Once Caldas hammered Boyacá Chicó 5-2 just days ago. That emphatic win underlines a team in good scoring touch at home and one that can shift gears quickly when the occasion demands it. Deportivo Pasto, by contrast, arrive battered from a 2-0 defeat at Junior FC and a run of results that has been frustratingly lean on returns: only one win in their last ten matches across competitions.

Form, recent meetings and tactical clues

Form is telling. Once Caldas’ sequence reads as a strong return to winning ways with seven wins, one draw and two defeats in their last ten – a run that includes a couple of multi-goal displays and a cup win over Independiente del Valle after penalties. Their home-specific stats are eye-catching: multiple goals scored and no goals conceded at their most recent home outings, with an attacking profile that shows 27 total shots and 15 on target across those fixtures. Deportivo Pasto have struggled to find rhythm away from home and generally lack the cutting edge demonstrated by the hosts; their last five league outings show several narrow defeats and a solitary win, and their shot and attack averages lag behind Once Caldas.

The only direct meeting available from this season was a Copa Colombia fight earlier where Once Caldas emerged victorious with a 2-1 win away at Pasto. That result not only gives Once Caldas psychological edge but also suggests Pasto have already been troubled by the visitors’ gameplan this season.

Tactically, expect Once Caldas to press the advantage of home momentum and look to pin Pasto back with sustained attacking phases — their attacksAverage and shots on target numbers indicate a side increasingly confident in front of goal. Deportivo Pasto will likely sit deeper and hope to counter, but recent away goal numbers don’t inspire confidence that they can consistently threaten the Once Caldas defence on the road.

Key takeaway and betting suggestion

Given the comparative form, the head-to-head edge, and the home attacking output, the clearest market to target is the match-winner 1X2. The bookmakers price Once Caldas at 2.28, reflecting them as favorites and aligning with the underlying data that points to a home victory. Betting suggestion: back Once Caldas to win (1) at the quoted odds of 2.28 — the home form and recent H2H make them the liveliest and most justifiable pick for this Copa Colombia knockout tie.