Context and stakes at The Kassam
Oxford United welcome Birmingham City to The Kassam Stadium on 31 January 2026 with both clubs carrying contrasting mid-season narratives. The fixture comes in Round 30 of the Championship and the tags are clear: Oxford sit perilously low in 23rd with 27 points from 28 matches, while Birmingham occupy a healthier 13th spot with 39 points from 29 outings. Referee Stephen Martin will take charge at Grenoble Road in front of a compact 12,500 crowd, and Oxford will be desperate for home form that has yielded just 13 goals conceded at home and only 13 defeats overall.
Form, recent meetings and what the numbers say
Recent results paint a story of two teams travelling in different directions. Oxford’s last five matches include some stubborn draws and a morale-boosting win at Leicester (1-2 on 24 January), but their broader sequence — W-D-D-L-L-W-L-L-D-L — underlines inconsistency and a defense that has shipped 36 goals this season. Birmingham arrive with a steadier set of outcomes: D-W-D-W-W-L-D-D-L-D, a record showing resilience and an ability to nick results away from home. Their last outing was a 1-1 draw with Stoke where Tomoki Iwata earned the best-player nod.
Statistically Birmingham look sharper in attack. They’ve produced 415 total shots and 111 on target across the campaign with an average of 14.31 shots per match and 5.48 corners — figures that speak to sustained offensive pressure. Oxford, by contrast, average 12.46 shots and less than four corners per game. Goalscoring balance also tilts towards the visitors; Birmingham have 39 goals to Oxford’s 27, and while both teams have their defensive frailties (Oxford conceded 36, Birmingham 38), the visitors’ superior shot volume suggests better chances created.
Head-to-head adds a nudge to Birmingham’s cause: the previous meeting this season ended 1-0 in their favour back in August. Home advantage for Oxford is real, but it’s been undermined by inconsistency and a lack of cutting edge at The Kassam, where Oxford have managed only 13 goals on home turf this season.
Prediction and betting suggestion
Taking form, season numbers and market pricing into account, the clearest single-line play is a 1X2 selection: back Birmingham City to win. The bookmakers list Birmingham at around 2.08, reflecting a solid chance given their superior attacking metrics, higher league position and the recent H2H result. For those focused on goals, the stats point to a match with chances for both sides but not an overwhelming expectation of a high-scoring shootout.
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