Prediction Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for Ligue 1 on 27/09/2025

Form, momentum and context

Paris Saint Germain arrive at the Parc des Princes as overwhelming favourites and the numbers do most of the talking. Across five league fixtures this season PSG sit second in the table with four wins and a single reverse, and their recent run has barely skipped a beat despite the sting of a 1-0 defeat to Olympique Marseille on September 22. That setback looked more like a bump than a trend: a 4-0 hammering of Atalanta and a 6-3 away blitz of Toulouse earlier in the month underline the attacking firepower available to the hosts. At home PSG have been especially stingy, registering three clean sheets and conceding zero at the Parc in the matches reflected in the data. Their totals — ten goals for and four against in five games — point to a side capable of producing high-end attacking output while still controlling games domestically.

Auxerre come into Paris with a contrasting story. The visitors sit 10th after five matches, with two wins and three defeats, and a modest goals tally of four scored versus six conceded. Their most recent result was a confidence-boosting 1-0 win over Toulouse on September 21, but that single positive result must be tempered by their away record shown in the figures: only one goal scored away across the split and four conceded, a sign that breaking down PSG on their turf will be a tall order. Auxerre’s formline shows flashes — three wins in recent spells — but inconsistency and defensive vulnerability away from home stand out.

Tactical implications and head-to-head

The last league meeting earlier in the year finished 3-1 in favour of Paris Saint Germain, a result that echoes the likely script for this upcoming fixture. PSG’s averages on shots and dangerous attacks are markedly higher than Auxerre’s: the hosts have produced a heavy volume of attempts and a dominant number of dangerous attacks, while the visitors’ numbers suggest a more conservative game-plan that depends on compact defending and the odd strike on the break. With PSG’s home clean-sheet record and Auxerre’s modest away scoring, the expectation is for the hosts to control possession and press for goals while limiting the visitors’ opportunities.

Betting suggestion: Back Paris Saint Germain to win (1). The market reflects the same conclusion, with PSG trading at 1.13 (implied probability 88.5%), supported by home clean sheets, superior attacking and defensive statistics, and a recent head-to-head 3-1 victory.