Prediction Real Madrid vs Osasuna 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for La Liga on 19/08/2025

Kick-off at the Bernabéu sets the tone for the new La Liga campaign

Real Madrid welcome Osasuna to the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on 19/08/2025 for the first round of the 2025/2026 La Liga season, and all signs point to a statement night for the hosts. Real arrive off the back of a convincing friendly win, a 4-0 triumph over WSG Tirol in which Kylian Mbappé was named best player with a sparkling 8.99 rating. That sort of pre-season momentum, combined with the raw power Real have shown in recent domestic results — a run that included wins over Real Sociedad, Sevilla and Mallorca — gives the home side a spring in their step heading into matchday one.

Osasuna, meanwhile, close out the previous campaign with a mixed bag: draws with Deportivo Alavés and Real Betis, and notable home victories against Espanyol and Atlético Madrid. The Pamplona side’s end-of-season pattern suggests resilience and the capacity to frustrate bigger opponents, but an away trip to the Bernabéu is a different proposition altogether. A February meeting between the two sides ended 1-1, demonstrating Osasuna can take a result off Madrid, yet the context of that match and the location now work against them.

Form, odds and the factors that matter

Form lines in the dataset paint a vivid contrast. Real Madrid’s latest string reads as largely dominant: eight wins from their most recent ten fixtures, and an emphatic preseason showing that should do wonders for confidence. Osasuna’s sequence is more conservative — five wins, four draws and a single loss in their ten — showing steady competitiveness but fewer decisive victories. The bookmakers reflect that gulf plainly: Real priced at 1.22 with an implied win probability above 80%, the draw at 6.00 and Osasuna an outsider at 13.00. Home advantage at a near 85,000-capacity Bernabéu amplifies Madrid’s edge; the Spaniards will be keen to serve notice they intend to hit the ground running in the new season.

This match is likely to be shaped by Madrid’s attacking assurance and Osasuna’s countering discipline. Recent reports show Real capable of high-scoring displays, while Osasuna have struggled to translate narrow resilience into consistent away success against elite opposition. The head-to-head last season shows Osasuna can hold their own, but replicating that result in Madrid will be a tall task.

Betting suggestion: Based on the available data, the clearest value lies in the 1X2 market. Back Real Madrid to win. The odds reflect strong probability and the elements lining up for the hosts — convincing preseason performance featuring Kylian Mbappé, superior recent win ratio, home advantage at the Bernabéu, and a market that heavily favors the home side. Stake size should be adjusted to the short price; consider a conservative wager relative to bankroll size given the low return on a favorite priced at 1.22.