Prediction Real Sociedad vs Mallorca 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for La Liga on 24/09/2025

Match preview: Anoeta showdown as two strugglers seek lift-off

Real Sociedad return to Anoeta Stadium on 24/09/2025 with the weight of a faltering start to the 2025/2026 La Liga campaign on their shoulders. Sitting 18th after five rounds and yet to register a league win, La Real arrive off a heavy 3-1 loss at Real Betis that underlined the need for answers across the spine of the team. Across townships of form and figures, Mallorca are scarcely in a brighter place; occupying 19th with an identical points haul and coming off a 1-1 draw with Atlético Madrid. Both sides have shown moments of fight but neither has managed the consistency to climb clear of the relegation zone, which injects a tangible urgency into this Friday evening fixture at Anoeta.

Form and recent results paint a tight but telling picture

Looking at the recent run sheets, Real Sociedad’s domestic results include draws with Valencia and Espanyol but defeats to the likes of Real Madrid and Real Betis — a sequence that speaks to a team leaking goals at key moments. Mallorca have also trailed on narrow margins, dropping a close 3-2 defeat to Espanyol and scoring in draws with Atlético and Celta. Statistically the two clubs are alarmingly similar in output: both have five goals scored across five matches and both have struggled to keep opponents off the scoresheet, with zero clean sheets apiece. The difference, however, emerges in the underlying attacking metrics. Real Sociedad average more shots, more dangerous attacks and nearly double the corners of Mallorca, suggesting better control and more sustained territorial pressure at home. Mallorca’s stronger recent individual showing came in their 1-1 draw where Leo Román earned top billing with an eye-catching rating; Real Sociedad’s best-rated performer in the last outing was Brais Méndez, a player who will be expected to nudge his side forward on home turf.

Prediction and betting angle: edge to the hosts

Bookmakers have taken note of the fine margins and the home advantage: Real Sociedad are priced as favourites around 1.77 in the match-winner market. That level reflects both their superior chance creation numbers at home and the reality that Mallorca’s attacking output has been fragile away from their own stadium. The head-to-head snapshot offers a reminder that Mallorca have troubled La Real in the past, but the current season’s data — higher shots, dangerous attacks and corner dominance for Sociedad — argues that Anoeta should be the setting where Real can finally convert pressure into three points.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Back Real Sociedad to win (Home) at 1.77. This pick leans on Sociedad’s superior attacking metrics at home, the bookmakers’ probability edge, and Mallorca’s continuing defensive vulnerability; a conservative single-market choice with a clear statistical justification.