Prediction Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the DFB Pokal on 18/08/2025

Match context and recent form

Rot-Weiss Essen welcome Borussia Dortmund to Stadion Essen on 18/08/2025 in the opening round of the DFB Pokal, a fixture that pits a proud lower-league outfit against one of Germany’s elite. The scene at Hafenstraße — capacity just over 20,000 — promises a lively cup atmosphere and a stern test for the hosts. Referee Frank Willenborg will take charge of what could be a clash of styles: Essen’s spirited home performances against Dortmund’s sustained run of form.

Essen arrive with mixed but encouraging recent results. Their friendlies and early season fixtures display a team capable of scoring prolifically on occasion — 5-0 and 5-1 wins stand out — yet also vulnerable, with a 3-2 loss at Hibernian and a couple of draws in the build-up. The form summary supplied shows five wins, three draws and two losses in their last ten, a record that highlights resilience but inconsistency when facing stronger foes.

Dortmund, by contrast, stride into the tie on the back of an imposing sequence. Their last ten read L-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-D: eight wins, one draw, one loss. Recent results include an emphatic 8-1 victory in a friendly and competitive wins such as 4-2 away at Leverkusen earlier in the summer, though they did suffer a narrow 2-1 friendly defeat to Juventus. Maximilian Beier was named Dortmund’s best on that night, underlining the attacking threat they possess even in non-competitive fixtures.

How the tie is likely to play out

This is a classic cup David vs Goliath setup. Essen will lean on home support, the familiarity of the Stadion Essen surface and recent attacking flashes to cause problems. Their ability to put multiple goals past lower opposition suggests they won’t be intimidated into a purely defensive shell. Dortmund, however, bring depth, momentum and a ruthlessness that has produced a high number of goals in recent outings. The head-to-head record is sparse and dated — a 3-2 friendly win for Essen back in 2017 — and offers little current guidance.

Bookmakers have reflected the gulf: Dortmund are heavy favourites with odds of 1.22 (implied probability ~81.8%), while Essen are priced at 10.00 and a draw at 6.25. Those lines underline an expectation of an away victory but don’t rule out goals, as both sides have been involved in high-scoring affairs in pre-season.

Final prediction and betting suggestion

The sensible expectation is for Borussia Dortmund to progress. Their form, quality in attack and superior resources make them the likeliest winners in regulation time. However, cup football can throw up shocks, especially with an energetic home crowd and Essen’s recent ability to find the net.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Back Borussia Dortmund to win (away victory). This pick aligns with form, recent results and the market odds. Consider a conservative stake given cup unpredictability.