Prediction Santa Clara vs Tondela 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Liga Portugal on 27/09/2025

Match preview

Santa Clara return to Estádio de São Miguel with momentum and the kind of home comfort that can define a season. The Azorean side have collected useful points in the opening rounds of the 2025/2026 Liga Portugal campaign and arrive after a 2-1 victory over Alverca, a result that built on earlier positive outings — a 1-0 win at Estoril and a hard-fought 1-1 draw at Benfica. Their league position and six-match record show a side capable of grinding out results: two wins, two draws and two defeats, four goals scored and six conceded. Statistically, Santa Clara carry decent attacking measures at home with an average of 5.5 corners per match and a steady supply of shots inside the box, and they’ve kept two clean sheets which underline their ability to stay compact when required.

Tondela, on the other hand, have been scrapping for points. Their campaign has produced no wins in six league matches, two draws and four defeats, with the goals column reading two scored and ten conceded. Recent results read as a blunt wake-up call: a goalless draw with Estrela Amadora followed by mixed summer form and heavy domestic defeats, including a 3-0 reverse at Benfica. Their away numbers show fewer corners and a higher concession rate at their opponents’ grounds, and the goals-against figure suggests vulnerabilities Santa Clara can exploit.

Form, head-to-head and venue

The last competitive meeting published between these teams ended 1-0 in favour of Santa Clara in Liga Portugal 2 back in April 2024 — a narrow win but one that hints at familiarity and marginal superiority for the hosts. Estádio de São Miguel’s atmosphere and home capacity offer Santa Clara a platform; their attacking averages and dangerous-attack metrics are marginally healthier than Tondela’s, and the islands-based club appear to be trending in the right direction.

Tondela will try to tighten up, but their defensive ledger and inability to find the net consistently away from home make this a difficult trip. The bookies mirror that assessment: home win odds of 1.71 translate to an implied probability north of 58%, while the draw and away win are priced significantly higher.

Prediction and Betting Tip

This reads as a clear home-favouring fixture. Santa Clara’s recent wins, stronger attacking returns at home, and superior position in the league table combine with Tondela’s porous defence to paint a picture of a match where the hosts should press for all three points. Expect Santa Clara to control spells of the match, create the better chances and edge out Tondela.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Back Santa Clara to win (odds 1.71). This is the preferred single-market pick based on form, home advantage and the bookmakers’ reflected probability.