Prediction São Paulo vs Ceará 2025 – Betting Tips for the Serie A on 29/09/2025

Match context and recent form

São Paulo returns to the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo looking to steady a rocky run of results after a draining week that included a Copa Libertadores quarter-final tie. The Morumbi faithful will hope the home comforts can blunt the fatigue from that 0-1 defeat to LDU Quito on September 25, a game in which Enzo Díaz emerged as the best-rated player for São Paulo despite the loss. Across the league campaign São Paulo sit seventh with 35 points from 24 matches, a ledger made up of nine wins, eight draws and seven defeats. Their home numbers have been respectable: 16 goals scored and only nine conceded on home turf, and eight clean sheets that point to a side still difficult to break down in front of their own supporters.

Ceará arrive with a more conservative recent pattern, headlined by a 1-1 draw with Bahia on September 20 where Lourenço stood out. The visitors are positioned twelfth in the table with 28 points from 23 matches, and their league form reads like a team that has been hard to beat but also not particularly prolific — seven wins, seven draws and nine losses, and 22 goals scored overall. Ceará’s recent string of fixtures has produced a cluster of draws and a couple of narrow defeats, indicating resilience but limited cutting edge away from home.

Tactical and statistical picture

Statistically the match leans toward a low-to-moderate scoring affair. Both sides register modest over-2.5 percentages — São Paulo around 37.5% and Ceará roughly 30.4% — suggesting that high-scoring nights are not the norm for either team. Sao Paulo edge the attacking numbers on total shots and dangerous attacks, but Ceará are not far behind in shots on target and have shown an ability to grind out results. The last meeting between the sides in April finished 1-1, a reminder that this fixture has historically delivered close contests rather than goal fests.

São Paulo also receive a clear nod in the betting market: bookmakers price the home win at approximately 1.62, translating to a perceived probability north of 60 percent. The draw offers value at 3.50, while Ceará are heavily underpriced for an away upset.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Given the combination of home advantage at a large Morumbi stadium, São Paulo’s stronger home defensive record, and the market confidence reflected in the odds, the most logical call is to back a São Paulo victory in the 1X2 market. The Cup exertions pose a wrinkle, but São Paulo’s ability to keep clean sheets at home and their superior overall points tally make them the sensible selection. Betting suggestion: back São Paulo to win (1X2 market) at the quoted price of 1.62 — a confident-home-win play supported by form, venue and market probability.