Prediction Sport Boys vs Atlético Grau 2025 – Betting Tips for the Primera Division on 23/09/2025

Match preview and context

The Clausura round in Peru's Primera Division brings a clash at the Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao as struggling Sport Boys host a rejuvenated Atlético Grau on 23/09/2025. The stage is small — a 13,000 capacity ground — but the implications are significant: Sport Boys sit down in 18th with just five points from nine games, while Atlético Grau lie comfortably higher in ninth with ten points from eight matches. There is a clear gulf in momentum that makes this a compelling fixture to assess for both form and value.

Sport Boys arrive on the back of a gritty 2-2 draw away at Cienciano but that result papered over some alarming trends. Their run shows one win, two draws and seven defeats in the latest string, and the goals tell the story — only four scored in nine matches and twelve conceded, leaving their attacking output worryingly thin. Home numbers are not encouraging: while they have managed 15 goals at home across the season stats and four clean sheets to their name in other contexts, their recent domestic results have been poor and confidence appears fragile.

Atlético Grau, by contrast, have found ways to grind out results. Recent back-to-back wins — including a 2-0 victory over Alianza Universidad where Patricio Álvarez earned the match’s top rating — feed into a sense that this side can execute when it matters. Their season balance shows 11 goals scored and 11 conceded overall, and an away scoring return that suggests they are not timid on the road. Atlético Grau’s formline is mixed but contains more positive spikes than their hosts, and their last encounter earlier in the year produced a thrilling 3-3 draw, indicating both teams can be involved in open moments.

Tactical tone and likely pattern

Expect a match where Atlético Grau will look to control tempo and press Sport Boys’ precarious defensive shape. Sport Boys’ attacks average fewer dangerous sequences compared to Atlético Grau’s superior numbers in dangerous attacks and overall actions, so the visitors should be comfortable nudging the game in their favour. The head-to-head 3-3 draw from April shows these teams are capable of producing goals when their defenses are breached, but the season-long data suggests Atlético Grau combine attacking intent with more recent defensive solidity — shown in their 2-0 clean-sheet win last time out.

Key statistical markers and market picture

Bookmakers currently show Atlético Grau as the narrower favourite with away odds around 2.45 (a probability of about 40.82%), while Sport Boys are priced at 2.75 and the draw at 3.00. The market reflects the form gap and the visitors’ greater consistency of late. Atlético Grau also boast more clean sheets in the data provided, and their recent performances include decisive wins rather than the defeats and low yields that have marked Sport Boys’ campaign.

Betting suggestion

Based on the comparative form, recent results and the market pricing, the strongest single pick here is Atlético Grau to win (Away, 1X2). The visitors’ upward momentum, cleaner defensive showing in recent fixtures, and their away offensive numbers make the 2.45 price an appealing value selection given Sport Boys’ fragile league position and lack of goals. Back Atlético Grau to win, but consider a conservative stake given the volatility of Clausura fixtures.