Prediction Sport Recife vs Fluminense 2025 – Betting Tips for the Serie A on 01/10/2025

Match preview and context

When Sport Recife welcome Fluminense to Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho on 01/10/2025, the gulf in the table and recent form will be the central narrative. Sport sit rock bottom in 20th with just 14 points from 23 matches, a side struggling to turn chances into goals and to find consistency. Their recent run shows flashes — a narrow victory over Corinthians and a draw at Bragantino — but those results are swallowed by heavy defeats away to Palmeiras and Vasco da Gama. In their most recent outing Sport fell 1-0 at Fortaleza, a defeat that underlines how fragile their defence has become at crucial moments this season.

Fluminense arrive in Recife buoyed by a morale-boosting 2-0 win over Botafogo on 28 September, and occupy a comfortable mid-table position in 8th with 34 points. Their season has been more balanced: double-digit wins and a positive goals record that suggests they can both create and close out matches. The recent head-to-head history leans in Fluminense’s favor as well — the sides last met in May with Fluminense claiming a 2-1 victory, a result that will give the visitors confidence when they step onto Sport’s home turf.

Tactical edges and form lines

Sport Recife’s numbers paint a picture of a team that struggles to score and has conceded too freely. With only 16 goals scored across 23 games and 35 conceded, their average shot metrics and goal conversion haven’t been enough to win matches consistently. The home crowd at Praça da Bandeira may lift the team, but the statistics point at a defence that has leaked goals and an attack that lacks cutting power.

Fluminense’s comparative balance — 28 goals scored and 29 conceded, ten wins on the season, and seven clean sheets — suggests a side capable of managing matches and taking opportunities when they come. Their average attacks and dangerous attacks numbers indicate they create chances and, crucially, can defend leads. Recent form, which includes four wins in the last ten and a solid victory over Botafogo with Martinelli earning a standout rating, reinforces the idea that Fluminense travel with purpose and momentum.

Betting tip

Bookmakers make Fluminense the marginal favorite with an away price around 2.52, while Sport’s home price sits near 2.96 and the draw at 2.98. Given the league positions, recent performances, the last head-to-head in Fluminense’s favor, and the visitors’ greater ability to keep clean sheets and convert chances compared to Sport’s struggles, the strongest single-market pick is a 1X2 selection backing Fluminense to win. Betting recommendation: back Fluminense to win (Away) at approximately 2.52. This choice balances value and probability based on the available form and stats.